Summary: It’s been six years from the previous recession. We should be watching for the next downturn. Since the usual forecasting tools never worked well, and are probably even less reliable in this new century, what should we watch? I suggest looking at potential causes of the next recession. There are a few obvious candidates. See their story in my post at Wolf Street.
- Reasons for economists’ confidence
- Bubbleville in Northern California
- Bigger: Automobiles
- Bigger: Housing
- Biggest: Exports