I will perform an unusual magic trick for you using the employment report. Rather than transforming something mundane (a bird, a hat, cards) into something spectacular, I will transform the spectacular October employment numbers (now sparking a thousand excited articles) into something mundane. The lessons learned from this will save you time in the future. Plus, at the end is a useful debunking of a myth about the employment numbers.
October’s non-farm payroll gain (aka the Current Employment Survey) was a blockbuster at 271,000, vs. the 3 month average of 187,000 and the 12 month average of 230,000. Better yet, it was a big “beat”, with Wall Street economists expecting 150-200 thousand. See this wonderful result on the graph showing the percentage change in jobs year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted (since the population grows, the percent change better shows the rate of improvement over time).
Not much change, is there?
