What Happens When the Auto-Loan Boom Blows Up?

Summary: One theory of the bulls is that the slow recovery since 2008 means that there are few imbalances in the US economy, the strong sectors whose busts cause recessions. That is not correct. Here we look at one strong sector: automobile sales. As usual in America, we start by looking at the lending that provides their growth – using data from Experian’s Q3 State Of The Automotive Finance Market and the Fed’s quarterly Consumer Credit report. The data suggests that we’re the end of the cycle. The end will not be pretty.

US light vehicle sales: 2006-2015

See my full report at Wolf Street.


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