Summary: Trump’s ascent shows the decay of the US political system. We see it in the inability of our political elites to see the forces propelling him or his smart moves, and their clumsy attempts to stop him. If he wins at the GOP convention, the Democrats will have to confront his message. They might find that difficult. Perhaps they know that, and so prefer to mock instead of engage.
Our elites, their servants, and those who see the world through their eyes, all have been surprised at every success by Trump. The New York Post shows why. Palin’s endorsement of Trump boosts his support from the Right — where most of his opponents live. The votes he loses are ones he was never going to get. Amidst the mockery, a few see this obvious fact. Such as this by Timothy Stanley at CNN…
“In fact, the endorsement is a smarter move than it might first appear. Sure, Palin has been near-invisible this campaign season and, sure, she is toxic to many liberal commentators and moderate voters. But Trump doesn’t need their votes right now. He needs to win Iowa. … the endorsement is God’s gift to Trump before Iowa. Elections in the Hawkeye State are swung by grass-roots activism and the enthusiasm of evangelical activists. Palin may not have exactly handed these over to Trump, but she has surely distracted them from the allure of Ted Cruz”
Showing the Left’s incisive thinking, journalist Charles Pierce at Esquire asks the key question…
“There is only one question worth asking about the sudden alliance between a vulgar talking yam and Princess Dumbass of the Northwoods. … What did it cost him?”
Adam Lerner at Politico has an answer: “Donald Trump says he’d tap Sarah Palin for a Cabinet post“. But the tape shows that Tump promised nothing. On “Momma Grizzly Radio” Kevin Scholla asked Trump…
“If there is a Trump Administration, could you see maybe picking up the phone and giving the governor a call? Picking her brain on some things, or perhaps having her along in some official capacity.”
Trump’s reply was that of a competent politician. Smooth but making no promises.
“I’d love that because she really is somebody who knows what’s happening. She’s a special person. She’s really a special person. And I think people know that and she’s got a following that’s unbelievable,”
The Left believes that their mockery has effect, so they post funny pictures of Trump, call him a NAZI, and so forth. It is epistemic closure at work, the Left’s communities working as a closed system. They’re talking to each other. That’s harmless, sad, and masks bad news for the Left.
Trump’s great challenge is motivating his supporters to vote, especially since many are from demographic groups with low voting rates. Silly forms of opposition from the Left probably help Trump. The Left is so unpopular with many people in America today that their opposition probably gains votes for Trump.
The dead heat between Trump and Clinton shows that if he gets the GOP nomination the Democrats will need to seriously engage with Trump’s platform, especially his populism and opposition to immigration. I believe that they have high odds of losing if they dress up as Angels and run as the great and good. Given the radical beliefs of the modern Republicans (they are no longer conservative) that could prove horrific for America.
The keys to a Trump win on Nov 8
First, Trump must build a political organization that converts strength in the polls into votes. We will not know if he has done so until we see results from the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries.
Second, he must make a deal with powerful elements of America’s ruling elites. Now most of them see Trump as a disruptor of a political game that they control. But Trump is both one of them (second generation wealth) and a consummate deal-maker (his book is, after all, The Art of the Deal
Third, Trump needs a message that appeals to majority of Americans. He has the basic elements for this today, as shown by this analysis of his platform (different from the “he eats babies” propaganda from the Left and Right)
Fourth, Trump needs a lucky break. A new and ugly Clinton scandal might do it. A recession in mid-2016 would do it, and could easily happen (see the details here).
Trump can win. It is too late for complacency, but not too late for action. Get involved.
Other posts about Trump and the new populism
- In August I wrote The Donald Trump revolution, dismissed as all revolts are in the beginning.
- Background: Scary lessons for America from pre-revolutionary France.
- Donald Trump leads us back to the future, to the dark days of US history.
- A New America arises, perhaps with Trump as its first leader.
- Two scary graphs about the rise of Donald. Fear fascism. Act now.
- Look to the Left to see the force powering Trump and Carson.
- The numbers about immigration that fuel Trump’s campaign.
- New York shows how Democrat-run cities & states contribute to the rise of Trump.
- Good news: we begin to see that we are sliding towards fascism.
- Next phase of the Trump revolution: rise of the new populism.
- Important: Trump’s hope: a recession might put him in the White House.
- The four keys to a possible Trump victory.
- A new survey shows Trump’s support among Democrats.
- Important: Trump, not Sanders, is the revolutionary.
For More Information
Important information about the primary calendar: it’s no longer weighted to a few primaries in the March (especially “super Tuesday”). After 2008 the GOP’s leaders changed the calendar and spread out the votes. Likely consequences: “Why the GOP Primary Could Be Even Crazier Than You Think” by Benjamin Ginsberg at Politico — “An insider’s guide to 19 long weeks of chaos.”
If you liked this post, like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. See all posts about our economy, and especially Recession Watch: the economic indicators that show what’s coming.
You don’t need to get votes from everyone, just from more people than the other guy.
The Trump understands this. But the megalomaniacs don’t. They need 98% legitimacy for their selfworth. In Africa they cheat at the point of a gun. In America they say anything that might get a vote and avoid anything that might lose them a vote. The Trump learned through business you can’t get it all but getting enough is what counts – and where your advertising budget should go to.
Let’s see… Trump wants apple to make products in America. Fine, sounds good.. but Trump wants to block all Muslims from entering America. Does he know that Steve Jobs’ natural father was a Syrian Muslim immigrant? So, if there had never been Muslims entering America…. there would be no apple corporation! That’s right, America… Steve Jobs was HALF ARAB!
Rathin,
I doubt that citing one case justifies large-scale immigration into the US, at historical peak — and destabilizing — rates. Evaluating the security risks of large-scale immigration of Muslims is speculative, but this is hardly a delusional risk — and there is little reason to suppose it is necessary for America.
I very much doubt US history would be substantially different if Jobs had never been. The key innovations were done in the 1970s at Xerox’s PARC. Most of Job’s innovations were incremental advances over other’s work. Such Amp’d Mobile, a precursor to the iPhone.
Posted at MetaFilter on Jan 21.
The comments posted there were worth reading.
“I hope this just cements his support. Or not. I don’t know what I want here.”
“Good the f*** luck. You made your bed, now sleep in it.”
“I’m not sure who this is aimed at. The conservatives that support the nomination of Trump are not the same conservatives that read the National Review.”
“They’re hoping that one will notice it sitting on a table in an airport lounge and go back and do an interpretive dance for the rest of the hive.”
“The editorial is so weird and full of cognitive dissonance. Can’t bring themselves not to turn the whole thing into a compliment sandwich. He’s awesome! We get it! But really, don’t you want a career insider establishment politician like JEB!?”
“Listen boys and girls, if you are faced with the real possibility of a Donald Trump as your presidential candidate, then Donald Trump obviously isn’t your fundamental problem…”
“Don’t piss down my back and tell me it’s raining…”
“I was disappointed Mark Helprin’s bit wasn’t just straight Winter’s Tale passages with Marcel Apand replaced by Trump.”
“From Katie Pavlich, the editor of Townhall: ‘Trump has made a living out of preying on and bullying society’s most vulnerable, with the help of government.’ So… he’s a conservative?”
“You know you are in for it when Beck is the first name on the list. It’s an alphabetized catalog of cranks you should never, ever listen to.”
“There is not enough schadenfreude in the Universe to exhaust my enjoyment of this. This is where the GOP really pays the price for their opportunistic decision to try and co-opt the Tea Partiers in 2009. Sow the wind…”