Summary: It’s time for the monthly festival of misinformation about the jobs report! It shows two key trends giving bad news for investors, the Fed’s governors, Team Trump, and America. They shatter the dreams of growth that flowered in 2015 (for the third time in this expansion). This is the second of today’s two posts.
- May’s job numbers were noise, as usual.
- The trend is the signal: slowing job creation and wage growth since Feb 2015.
- The trend in real wages is even more important: slowing, now near zero.
- Ignore these trends at your peril. They’re good for bonds and bad for stocks.
The bottom line: reality shatters the dreams of accelerating growth, dreams on which so many have wagered so much. Watch closely. Interesting times lie ahead if these trends continue.