Summary: Sometime during the past few generations we lost our confidence in ourselves. Fear replaced it. This makes us weak and easy to manipulate. But we exaggerate the dangers, and our history gives us reason for hope. Let’s shed our fears to build a better future!
Climate change, peak oil, 4GW, social decay, ecological collapse, economic collapse, pandemics of new and old diseases – the list rolls on. It’s the Crisis Crisis, with the doomsters dominating our news. Every day they ask “How can civilization survive for a new generation?” But for thousands of generations humanity has confronted such serious problems as we climbed from scavengers to become the dominant species on this planet.
We no longer even remember the steps in our long climb. For example, Victorian London was one of the world’s greatest cities, one of the first modern cities. Its people lived closer to nature than those of today’s London. Their food was “organic”, since the agrichemicals industry – with its artificial preservatives, colorings, and other adulterants – had not been invented. It was as nice as often portrayed. (Note on the below table – Rutland is a rural Midlands county and Colton is a rural Midlands village. Compare with the two cities.)
“The groaning tables on Victorian Christmas cards groaned beneath platters of food that would be condemned as unfit by modern health officials.”
— From William Manchester’s The Last Lion: Winston Spencer Churchill, Visions of Glory
” (1842).Fantastic progress in technology changed brought the health, affluence and security that most of us in the West enjoy today. It has spread around the world. In Ian Fleming’s 1955 novel Moonraker
So why so much fear about the future?
Refuting the many doomster nightmares is like plugging holes in a cracking dam. These stories multiply, driven by our fears about the future of our rapidly changing world. How strange that our past successes provide Americans with so little confidence about the future. What will happen during the next fifty years, by 2069? Here are my guesses.
- Peak oil will have come and gone. By 2069 we have adapted to a post-oil world.
- The age wave will have passed over us. The developed world will have seen the elderly become its largest age group – placing severe stress on their economies – then die. Many local governments’ retirement systems will have gone bust paying for their pensions and medical care (details here).
- The global long population crash will have begun as many nations have population declines (it has already hit Japan). Societies with fertility rates below replacement will face slow cultural extinction, unless they boost fertility or assimilate large numbers of immigrants. The economic effects of population decline are exaggerated.
- A new industrial revolution has now begun. Late 21st century industry will rely on catalytic chemistry (as does our body), producing few pollutants. Advanced power systems will provide ample clean power.
Conclusions
We look back at the fears of the Victorians with amusement (Queen Victoria died in 1901). Would cities grow so large that horse manure renders them unlivable. Would the lights go out when the last whale was killed for its oil. Would the Earth be ravaged by giant war machines (such as airships and submarines)? We can only guess what the world of 2069 might look like. It might seem as strange to us as the world of 1950 would be to someone in 1900. I believe that in 2069 our descendants will laugh at our nightmares, while they look to the future with fear about challenges we cannot imagine.
Our most serious challenges result from choices we make as a society. The nature of the problems and the results are in our hands. These are largely in our minds, unlike the external problems discussed here. We have the wisdom and social cohesion to cope with them, if we make the necessary effort.
Long ago humanity was born naked and ignorant on Africa’s Serengeti Plains, bereft of either armor or weapons. We have survived droughts and floods, an ice age and a supervolcano – slowly leaning and developing our powers. We have always walked into an unknown future, but our past should give us the confidence to do so with caution but not fear.
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear.
I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone ….I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing.
Only I will remain.”
— The Litany Against Fear, used by the Bene Gesserit in Frank Herbert’s Dune
For More Information
Ideas! For some shopping ideas, see my recommended books and films at Amazon.
If you liked this post, like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. See all posts about the new industrial revolution, about fear, about shockwaves, about good news for America, and especially these…
- Is America’s decline inevitable? No. – Why be an American if one has no faith in the American people?
- Rebuttals to the big list of reasons why America will fall.
- Good news about the 21st century, a counterbalance to the doomsters.
- Experts, with wrinkled brows, warn about the future – Experts often see the future with alarm, seeing the dangers but not benefits. That gets attention, from both the media and an increasingly fearful public.
Hope you are right!
I am concern about the lack of assimilation, my students even while seeking permanent residency, laugh at the high divorce rate and poor lack of work ethic in many Australians. Without the mining they think a fair proportion think we would be the white trash of Asia, they hide those thoughts less and are loathed by many locals.
Just a guy,
This post refers to our physical problems – our (so to speak) external challenges.
Our social ones, such as from our open borders, are self-inflicted. The ability to fix them is totally under our control.
What about massive demographic changes? White or European-Americans, the core population of The United States, are slated to become a minority in what was their own country within the next 30 years. Demography is what makes a nation what it is, forms its institutions, and character. You do not mention or are oblivious to this massive change coming soon.
Is this the only article you’ve read here? He mentions the threat of immigration quite a bit. However, like most threats, this one is similarly exaggerated. For example Ireland has weathered many outright invasions over the last thousand years – from the Vikings to the Normans (other vikings) to the English. Not to say this was great for the inhabitants, but it was hardly the end of Ireland.
Vikings and Normans were not much different racially or ethnically from the native Irish. Its interesting you mention Ireland as there is a very real threat today to its existence culturally and ethnically via the European Union and massive third world immigration. White Americans for the first time in American history are slated to become just another minority in what was once ‘their country.’ If current immigration and demographic trends are not halted and/or reversed, that will be the biggest transformation of our society in our existence as a country. Surely that merits some reflection here.
Lol. You’re joking right? Yes, I am sure that as the Vikings plundered, raped, and enslaved the Gaels, they said to themselves ‘at least they are white.’ They’re different culturally, which is what matters here.
The “threat” in immigration would be the disadvantaging of native workers and the challenges of cultural assimilation. My grandmother was able to tell me about the time when the Irish and Italians weren’t considered exactly “white.” Yet strangely I rarely see many people fulminating about the cultural threat of the Hibernian nowadays.
Chris,
“What about massive demographic changes?”
That is not a problem like peak oil or pollution. Those are external challenges, from the real world. You refer to one of our social problems, the effects of open borders, which are self-inflicted. The ability to fix them is totally under our control.
It’s the difference from someone whose house is hit by a truck – and another who is an alcoholic. Both problems, but of different kinds.
You are correct that it could be solved very easily by simply restricting immigration, but it very likely won’t be since the ruling elites of the U.S. are fanatically devoted to mass immigration and ‘growth’ at all costs.
Humans have an innate existential paranoia. This is an adaptation, not a defect, because the wary survive when the complacent do not. Is that rustling in the brush a tiger or a hedgehog?
The problem comes when those with hidden agendas manipulate this natural instinct for their own purposes. The best defense is knowledge, and a healthy skepticism.
Humans are endlessly adaptable. Even if we don’t exactly triumph, we’ll muddle through. It will crash and burn eventually, as does everything, but for the foreseeable future we’ll get by as we always have.
You touch on something that has lately become a theme of mine: The widespread lack of gratitude at our extraordinary good fortune to be alive now, a time of safety and stability, comfort and extraordinary plenty. Until quite recently, unless you were very, very lucky, life was hard, unfair, unkind, often miserable, and usually short.
Scott,
I think you’re missing the point of my posts about fear. History is not about basic human traits, omnipresent in history and geography. It is about changes in magnitudes. Americans have become more fearful than in the past. Our ruling elites see this, and naturally use our fear to control us. That’s our problem, our responsibility.
About Fear
Scott said:
“The problem comes when those with hidden agendas manipulate this natural instinct for their own purposes. The best defense is knowledge, and a healthy skepticism.”
Larry Said:
“Americans have become more fearful than in the past. Our ruling elites see this, and naturally use our fear to control us. That’s our problem, our responsibility.”
=> Same thing (in essence); magnitude is likely the product of manipulation (propaganda).
Trouble is that most don’t get the necessary knowledge through the regular channels; a couple of “weird voices” on a local school board will change nothing; all the Assanges through Unzes will be silenced; and healthy skepticism doesn’t come to the ignorant…
Jako,
“magnitude is likely the product of manipulation (propaganda).”
The wonderful thing about modern Americans is their capacity to avoid responsibility for everything. We’re fearful, so it must must must be someone else’s fault.
We have become pleasant peasants, ideal peons. A gift to our rulers.
Your point was abundantly clear and well-made. Sometimes my inner bloviator just takes over.
Optimism repels fear. Americans are not as optimistic as they once were. But did we naturally lose our optimism and thus grow fearful? Or was that optimism poisoned by cynical operators?
Either way, our elites have abrogated the social contract that once bound us. Somewhere along the line they decided that service was for suckers. Get what you can, while you can seems to be the operative principle now. So they keep us off balance and compliant; easy pickings. And we, hamsters on a wheel, are unable to resist.
Maybe it’s still possible to right this listing vessel. But to do so we will need to lose the fear as we find the way. And with the guidance of perceptive, clear-thinking persons such as yourself, perhaps we shall.
Scott,
“Either way, our elites have abrogated the social contract that once bound us.”
You will look in vain for mention of any such self-indulgent concept in the writings of the Founders. They spoke of the people’s love of liberty and their willingness to fight for the right of self-government. Entirely foreign to them was the concept of “elites” to whom we depend on like a dog does for scraps.
There are tens of thousands of comments in reply to my many scores of posts about the problems of America. 99.9% of them (guessing) whine about the big baddies who hurt our feelings and take our toys. These, as a body, vividly demonstrate our peril.
Perhaps I should just post videos of Disney films. The Great Circle of Life is that prey attract predators.
Or perhaps one of the Captain Marvel (Shazam) cartoons I read as a child. Billy has given up being a superhero. But he is angered by the villain’s actions. He walks towards the villain saying “I’ll be weak no more” (probably not very scary words to the villain). Then says “Shazam” – and becomes the villain’s worst nightmare. For a human, being prey is a choice.
Larry,
“Entirely foreign to them (the Founders) was the concept of “elites” ”
Sorry, but it could occur to some — THEY (the Founders) were the “elites;” they never dreamt of that ALL, the plebs, the slaves and the women would be allowed to vote, let alone to somehow “contribute” to the governing process. “These (99%), as a body, vividly demonstrate our peril.”
Jako,
That’s not even a rebuttal. When the Founders spoke of the people, they did not believe that was limited to voters. John Adams considered Abigail Adams and the women of Boston to be citizens, whose love of liberty would help bring victory to the Revolution. He was correct.
Our fetish about voting, as if that’s the beginning and end of a citizen’s responsibility, like deciding which brand of toilet paper to buy, would be considered insane by the Founders.
Larry,
“That’s not even a rebuttal.”
Was not meant to be. Just to show that the mechanism of the “self-governance” has not been working for a while now, and, in that context, the 99% is too ‘diluted’ to matter and the apparent brainwashing should not impede that recognition. Our inability to uproot the “deep state / our new elites” should be proof enough.
There’s no magic at our disposal, we can’t build a wall from horse shit, let alone a shield and lance; not even a bloody sump pump to drain “the swamp.” (I’m tired of these metaphors too!)
The only chance we have left is to change the rules: there are many shades of ‘direct democracy’ — but, I suppose, only one way to implement it, the darn R-word, I’m afraid.
The question is: are we ready for that? I don’t think we are, yet.
OTOH, if the ‘re-igniting the spirit’ precludes that prospect, it may be all but futile.
I’m quite convinced that point #3 is a reality but it is going to take a long time before people wake up to it. Have you read “Empty Planet”? Which seems to echo that conviction. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/27/what-goes-up-population-crisis-wrong-fertility-rates-decline – this article has several other people on the matter.
I wonder if things will stabilize at some point or if the trend would continue until we look like Aurora from Asimov’s books. I imagine if automation was able to give direct support to child-rearing it would be much less of a hassle.
No faith in the American people? I have no faith in Joe Biden. I have no faith in Bernie Sanders. I have no faith in Kamala Harris. I have no faith in Cory Booker. I have no faith in Beto O’Rourke. I have no faith in Kirsten Gillibrand. I have no faith in Pete Buttigieg. I have no faith in Nancy Pelosi. I have no faith in Mitch McConnell. I have no faith in Donald Trump. These are all either stupid or criminal. These are the people that the American people “choose” to govern them. How could any halfway sensible person have any faith in such a people?
MBlanc,
There is no people in history that has not gone through a period of bad leadership. What distinguishes a great people from others is their ability to recover, and rise to the challenge.
MBlanc,
The first of these is unlike the second:
The first are minor officials, up to junior Senators. The second are major national leaders. The first are radicals. The second are moderates. Don’t conflate the two.
Just a guy,
This post refers to our physical problems – our (so to speak) external challenges.
Our social ones, such as from our open borders, are self-inflicted. The ability to fix them is totally under our control.
A lot of Yellow Vests got blinded, gases and beaten into submission.
Fathers of victims of rape gangs are prosecuted by Police for trying to rescue their girls from these gangs in the UK, turning up a house were their daughters were being held and Police refusing to investigate the houses.
2 churches a week are vandalised and priests have been killed in France. When they mention the ethnicity of the perpetrator they say they had mental issues.
To stop the momentum takes a brave man, I just stood up and refused to pass everyone at a London Further Education College in the 1990’s, it finished my career. When I met an Australian girl, it wasn’t that hard to work out it was a good idea to get out.
Our Premier has just made our State the easiest to get Permanent Residency in, refuses to publish the number of small farms Chinese have now bought, the wind farms are all Chinese money, the cost of growth is we are slowly being sold out.
I would lose my teaching job or be moved into the worst classes just for writing this above, resistance is very hard now.
Just a Guy,
I expect those things to get worse before they get better.
“To stop the momentum takes a brave man”
They cannot be stopped by a man, no matter how brave or capable. Such things only happen in superhero films, the modern opiates of the masses (along with real opiates). They are stopped by men and women standing together, with organization, resolve, and patience (all three are needed).
I hugely agree, but if we have too much patience the open borders will make it impossible without civil war to correct, if we organise we are fascists, if we show resolve we are called racists, or if non white sell outs.
The yellow vests stayed silent until they could bear it no more, they were beaten down. Only the loony left is still smashing our European heritage in yellow vests.
Keep up the good work, you draw attention to the reality of our situation. I, too fear it will get (a lot worse), be before it gets better.
Thanks for all your work and effort, Editor.
Just a Guy,
“The yellow vests stayed silent until they could bear it no more,”
The Yellow Vests are a commonplace peasants’ protest. Blow off steam, wreck some stuff, get beaten. Done by both Left and Right, as in America – Tea Party and Occupy. Peasants protests are the opposite of effective action, as they lack organization, resolve, and patience (all three are needed).
Pingback: Have fun our shiny long term on New 12 months’s eve! – All My Daily News
Pingback: Rejoice our brilliant long run on New 12 months’s eve! – Daily News
Pingback: Celebrate our bright future on New Year’s eve! – Weather Brat Weather around the world plus