Summary: On Monday Iowa Republicans will caucus and vote on the candidates. The candidates have made bold claims that they are going to win big. By 10:00 pm central standard time on January 15th we’ll learn who was right. I am a caucus volunteer for my precinct and active member of my county’s Republican party. Below are the different candidates’ claims and my personal observations on the caucus.
The Candidates’ Claims of Pending Victory
- Donald Trump: The incumbent advantage gives him huge name value. Many “casual” Republicans only know his name and maybe Desantis or Haley. He’s the “safe” choice for many voters. Every politically motivated indictment against him only reinforces his “martyr” image. However, Trump comes into this primary with a LOT of baggage. Even his accomplishments, such as the covid vaccines, are increasingly controversial among Republican voters.
- Nikki Haley: Per the campaign ad in front of every Youtube video I watched last week, she beats Biden by double digits in the polls. Haley beat Desantis as the darling of the neocons with her unconditional support to Israel. I have met only two Haley supporters among my county’s Republicans. The first is an elderly feminist old enough to have marched with the suffragettes in the 1800s, yet for some reason is a Republican. The second is a young Jewish man in university who supports Nikki solely for her unconditional support for Israel. I question the accuracy of the polls showing her surging past Desantis. In contrast Democrats are encouraging their constituents to cross lines to vote for Haley over Trump.
- Vivek Ramaswamy: Both his campaign team and Vivek himself claim he will “shatter expectations.” Reportedly many of his supporters are nontraditional voters, or have never caucused before. They aren’t polled and caught in the current polling data. I stated in my previous article for the FM website that Vivek’s youth would help him campaign. Vivek recently completed his “Full Grassley” Tour of visiting all 99 counties in Iowa, twice. He’s ramped up his campaign events leading up to the Iowa caucus with as many as six events a day. In addition, Ramaswamy moved farther out politically than Trump, such as his No to Neocons Pledge.
- Ron Desantis: To be honest Ron hopes you to take him seriously still. Most of the supporters he had in January 2023 have reverted to Trump, with a few going to Vivek Ramaswamy. His flip flops on Ukraine, attacking Trump, and his weak debate performances have gutted his chances. In my local county only the young naïve photogenic volunteers still think he’s a strong candidate.
- Chris Christie: I wrote this draft before Christie withdrew on Wednesday. But his hot mic moment that Haley was gonna get smoked was his first and only boon to the Republican party. This still doesn’t outweigh his “accomplishment of helping form the TSA (and its incompetence).
- Asa Hutchison: I only realized that he hasn’t formally dropped out while researching for this article.
My Observations on the Caucus
Republicans are only slowly realizing that it isn’t “business as usual” in America these days. I see that reflected in the caucus preparations. The Republican Party of Iowa (state level) made some adaptations from 2016 and 2020. The bulk of the execution rests with the county level Republicans. If the Iowa caucuses run into trouble it will be from not recruiting enough volunteers. I proposed sending out a mailer to all registered republicans in the county. The note would tell them what their precinct # is and request volunteers to help with the caucus. The response chilled me, “We don’t hold people’s hands.” I also believe they don’t want more volunteers, since that would disrupt their country club elitism.
The mailer incident reinforces my observation of the major divide between the “old guard” and new volunteers coming into the Republican party. The “old guard” only think their job involves parades and fundraising while the new volunteers understand America is in trouble. The old guard care more about “how it’s done” than achieving results. The new volunteers are far more politically charged than the old guard. One new volunteer I spoke to was older woman in her 50s. She outright shocked me when comparing the immigration crisis to the fall of Rome. We were discussing Illinois’ new law allowing non-citizens to become police, as well as the military’s interest in recruiting immigrants. Overwhelmingly the new volunteers want action, even if it’s not the best solution.
Predictions on the Results
Anyone confidently giving vote percentages for the caucus is trying sell you something. My personal guess on just ranking the candidates is below.
- Donald Trump
- Vivek Ramaswamy
- Ron Desantis
- Nikki Haley
- Mickey Mouse
- Asa Hutchison
Good sport Agrippa (might be the first time that’s ever been said) for putting up when Vikek dropped out .
The roads in our city were not well plowed and the city no longer uses much salt. Plus, the temperature was minus 5F.
We expected 400 at our precinct. We got 75. This probably skewed the vote, but nobody can say in what way.
The #1 problem with all GOP candidates is that, despite their virtue signaling about God and Jesus, is that they are completely amoral. There is no better example than Ukraine, which they are only capable of characterizing in terms of money and power dynamics. Maybe it is wrong to send American weapons to kill women and kids celebrating new years eve? That is not an observation republicans are even capable of making, as it is outside their mental universe. It is hard to sympathize when the USA eventually collapses under the weight of its own satanic bullshit.
Well, that’s certainly drawing with a broad brush a collection of people with wildly divergent views. I suspect you look on the world and see only what you want to see.
Your description of GOP leaders’ views about Ukraine is bizarre. Some are full-fledged hawks, even war mongers. Some are neutral on the war. Some are opposed to it.
If you think the US is “satanic” I shudder to imagine your views of other nations, most of which are as bad or worse than the US.
“Some are full-fledged hawks, even war mongers. Some are neutral on the war. Some are opposed to it.”
Which is amazing in of itself. Even after it was revealed Ukrainian money is laundered back to the DNC about half of Republican congressmen still support it. They love war so much they’re fine with literally funding their own opposition. And of course that’s the issue with Republicans, they love punching right. There’s nothing than gets them more excited than killing other white Christians. Republicans will leap into bed with anyone, whether it is Albanian drug dealers, Syrian Islamists, or Israeli zionists bombing orthodox churches – as long as killing Christians is involved, Republicans support it.
“If you think the US is “satanic” I shudder to imagine your views of other nations, most of which are as bad or worse than the US.”
Well, the Iowa capitol has a shrine to Satan, so what am I supposed to think?
I think you support Republicans because you feel that’s the “lesser of two evils” – even as they spit in your face and wage war on your religion and ethnicity.
It would be best if the Iowas caucuses were more like Russian elections with only one candidate on the ballot. The candidate must be an evangelical Christian which is what the Founding Fathers intended in their writings.
What are you talking about? There will be several candidates in the Russian election.
Titian,
Some of the Founders were evangelical Christians. Some were more mainstream Christians. Some were deists.
I doubt many, perhaps none, of the Founders believed in single candidate “elections.”
I think Fabius Maximus has never left the USA, and has no clue how absolutely shit American quality of life is compared to other countries, even countries with A LOT less money than us.
Padawan, your grasp of the Force is weak. Your wild guessing is absurd. Perhaps you will improve with practice.