Summary: The current political and regime in Europe has erupted from its long slow burn into low flames, with the elections this weekend in France and Greece. Unless its leaders do the unexpected, taking bold and large-scale actions to further unify Europe, then a raging bonfire seems likely to consume the current order. That’s been the forecast of the FM website for the past five years. Here we review those posts.
Most of the content on the FM website provides two services: analysis and forecasting. The record shows that we do a good job (see Predictions – how do they look now?) But when events catch up with our forecasts, we do a poor job of reminding readers of our forecast. So as the pace of change accelerates for Europe, and Greece makes decisions about its destiny, we list posts that can help you understand what’s happening in Europe.
Here are links, by topic.
(1) Best live source for news about the Greek crisis:
- Athens News’ daily post-election news
(2) Forecasting the crisis in Europe:
- The post-WWII geopolitical regime is dying. Chapter One , 21 November 2007 — Why the current geopolitical order is unstable, describing the policy choices that brought us here.
- Can the European Monetary Union survive the next recession?, 11 July 2008
(3) A look at our forecasts: Forecasts – possible futures for America and the World
(4) Posts specifically about Greece:
- A great speech by the PM of Greece. How soon until an American President says similar words?, 3 March 2010
- The EU does Kabuki for Greece. Is it the next domino to fall?, 14 April 2010
- Important: Former Central Bank Head Karl Otto Pöhl says bailout plan is all about ‘rescuing banks and rich Greeks’, 20 May 2010
- Hot news! The Wehrmacht failed to take Greece. Now Germany tries again, with a different method., 28 January 2012
- Europe has chosen a harsh future. All the paths for Greece lead into darkness., 24 February 2012
- A note from Athens: Feeling on the ground has palpably changed, 1 March 2012 — A clear sign that the Greek people were ready for change, for a gamble with their fate
(5) Analysis and forecasts about the crisis in Europe, reporting their slow march to the cliff:
- The periphery of Europe – a flashpoint to the global economy, 8 February 2010
- Governments cannot go bankrupt, 2 April 2010 — But they can default.
- About the Euro crisis: the experts are wrong; the German people are right., 7 May 2010
- The Fate of Europe, nearing the point of decision, 13 September 2011
- Europe drifts towards the brink of a cataclysm, 26 September 2011
- Delusions about easy fixes for Europe, dreaming during the calm before the storm, 30 September 2011
- Every day the new world emerges, yet we see it not. Like today, as Europe begs China for loans, 15 September 2011
- Is Europe primed for chaos, as it was in July 1914?, 7 October 2011
- Today Europe’s leaders took another step towards the edge of the cliff, 27 October 2011
- Where to from here, Europe? Some experts share their views., 8 November 2011
- Status report on Europe’s slow re-birth (first, the current system must die), 10 November 2011
- Europe begins its endgame. Watch and learn, for Europe’s problems are the world’s., 11 November 2011
- Looking ahead to see the new shape of Europe, 22 November 2011
- Europe passes the last exit. A great crisis lies ahead., 21 February 2012