Causes and effects of the Nice attack

Summary: The Nice incident was the latest in a long series of jihadist attacks in Europe. Here we look at the mass immigration which made it almost inevitable, and the likely effects. The resulting political destabilization will make mitigate (there is no cure) more difficult — and more attacks are coming.

French Muslims burning French flag

The attack in Nice is just the latest in a long series of attacks by Islamic terrorists in Europe since 2010. This is not just a shock like 9/11 was to America because it results from a long-standing, bipartisan (i.e., both Left and Right), and unpopular policy: allowing mass immigration. The cumulative effect of these attacks might discredit much of western Europe’s political leadership. That might prove more significant the death toll from these incidents.

“What does the word ‘enough’ mean? Is Sweden full? Is the Nordic region full? Are we too many people? We are 25 million people living in the North. I often fly over the Swedish countryside. I would recommend more people to do the same. There are endless fields and forests. There’s as much space as you can imagine. Those who claim that the country is full, they must demonstrate where it is full.”
— Fredrik Reinfeldt (Prime Minster of Sweden from 2006-2014), expressing views of EU’s elites.

The WaPo reports that “The refugee crisis could actually be a boon for Germany.” Pushing wages down! Higher corporate profits!

“‘…this country, which eighty years ago was responsible for the worst crimes of the century, has today won the applause of the world, thanks to its open borders.”
— Merkel, Chancellor of Germany since 2005. Applause of the world’s elites.

In August 2015 this EU poll asked people to list the most important issues facing the EU. What would this look like if run today? Click to enlarge.

EU Poll - Immigration as top concern
Autumn 2015 report of the Standard Eurobarometer.

G. I. Wilson (Colonel, USMC, retired) sees other consequences of Nice

“The attack in Nice is another horrible attack on France and the rest of the Western world. The short-term goal of the attack was to cause mass casualties garnering graphic media coverage. The attack was indeed low tech (i.e. truck) but sophisticated in simplicity, concept, and execution taking advantage of a large crowd peacefully celebrating Bastille Day.

“In the long term the attack will have a lingering moral, physical, psychological and economic impact on France while further perpetuating the escalation of fear in Western civilization. Fear is the adjunct of terrorism. Radicalized Islamists’ design is one of using terrorism and the psychology of fear to bring down the Western way of life.

“Europe is in a perilous situation. Europe may not be able to retreat from the brink radical Islamists have pushed them to laminated with enclaves of the un-assimilated and floods of refugees with radical Islamists secreted within.

“The radical Islamist narrative is simple and calculating, ‘Western nations with their conventional military apparatus, politically correct bureaucratic-governance, incompetent ruling elites, and hobbled law enforcement agencies are not capable of protecting us from the radicalized Islamic jihadi threat.’ Whether that is true or not is yet to be determined.

“As I wrote here back in January 2015 regarding 4th generation warfare (4GW) and hybrid warfare (HW) way before of recent spate of horrific attacks: Understanding 4GW, the first step to winning the Long War.

“Both 4GW and hybrid warfare (HW) orientations in fact portend the worst is yet to come. Particularly in the wake of our incompetent-lumbering bureaucracy that struggles with non-state and failed-state actors. The emergence of the Islamic State, (also known as ISIS or ISIL) is merely an indicator and warning (IW) of the blended operational TTPs and lethality we face. ISIS/ISIL is a foreboding harbinger of ‘something wicked this way comes.'”

“Indeed, the attack in Nice, France, signals the worse is still yet to come and is coming here in spades if our politically correct ruling elites do not show leadership and concern for the people. This war with radical Islam is playing out as outlined in the series ran here about the 4GW in 2015. Regrettably, those words largely fell on deaf ears in the corridors in DC. Our DC elites are in stark denial of the fact that radical Islamists are not only out to kill us but are out to annihilate all of Western civilization.”

Combine the political and 4GW aspects = trouble

Europe is in a situation much like the forests of the western US. Years of policy errors have made both into large tinderboxes.  Prevention is impossible; massive fires are inevitable. Mitigation is the only option. That’s easy (albeit expensive) with forest fires. Less so with the consequences of mass immigration.

France will have to live with the great rings around its cities of disaffected, poor, unassimilated migrants and their children. Fundamental Islamic groups have spent years building their infrastructure, with jihadists lurking within. More attacks are likely.

There are no easy solutions for France, or for Europe. It will require good leadership and strong political cohesion — both of which become less likely after the coming political blowback from these attacks, as people lose confident in their leaders — and some turn to more extreme political movements.

“What is Sweden as a country? Is this nation owned by those who have lived here for four generations, or by those who invent some borders? Or is this an open country made up of people who arrive here, in midlife, perhaps born in another country? And it is what they make of Sweden that is Sweden.”
— Fredrik Reinfeldt, Prime Minster of Sweden from 2006-2014.

For More Information

If you liked this post, like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. See all posts about terrorism, about Europe, about immigration, and especially these…

  1. Is Europe sliding towards civil war?
  2. France on Fire” by Mark Lilla.
  3. Stratfor: Why Germany Cannot Stop the Flow of Migrants.
  4. Europe’s elites use immigration to reshape it.
  5. Stratfor: How immigration will change German politics, which will change Europe.
  6. Recommended: Torching Utopia: Sweden tries mass immigration.
  7. Horrific news from Sweden about sexual assaults by immigrants.
  8. Stratfor: The Refugee Crisis Redefines German Politics. It could get ugly.
  9. Sociologist Wolfgang Streeck explains the politics of the migrant crisis reshaping Europe.

6 thoughts on “Causes and effects of the Nice attack”

    1. I’ve had many discussions with my English collegues on this. Scotland reaps many of the benefits of EU membership without as many as the problems, i.e. immigration. No wonder; who is itching to move to the land of deep fried mars bars and freezing cold?

    1. Mauizio,

      “Immigration the issue, or unassimilation”

      That’s a powerful question! Much depends on how you frame the issue. EU elites see immigration as a good thing, so unassimilation is a problem. If you see few or no benefits from immigration, then that’s the problem.

      “unassimilation due to socialist housing projects?”

      That’s clearly a tiny aspect of the problem. Most cultures don’t assimilate large numbers of very foreign people easily or quickly. France appears to do so unusually poorly (that’s a feature, not necessarily a problem). As shown by the long and often painful history of Jews in France.

    2. it’ s probably only a mad man this time, not jihadist. about “socialist” housing that lead to unassimilation: it’ s the opposite: in France formers center right (neoliberal not socialist) government concentrate immigrant inside outksirts ghetto: it’s form here that came terrorist (or mad lone wolf): the political choice it’s not assimilate but marginalize.

      1. Paolo,

        “it’ s probably only a mad man this time, not jihadist”

        We don’t know at this time. But “mad man” mass killings, lacking any further motivation, are not common in Europe. Political killings (including religion) are.

        “in France formers center right (neoliberal not socialist) government concentrate immigrant inside outksirts ghetto”

        The problem extends across western Europe (e.g., Britain & Sweden), and so is clearly not linked to such narrow factors.

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