Summary: Today's violence from Islamic extremists has many similarities to the anarchists of the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Using standard police and intelligence methods, Western governments defeated the anarchists -- without massive restrictions on civil liberties, without military operations. We can defeat today's Islamic extremists using similar methods -- reversing the results from 16 years of … Continue reading We can defeat today’s jihadists, as we did the anarchist terrorists a century ago
Summary: Here Stratfor examines a growing and disturbing aspect of fourth generation warfare -- the increased use of children as soldiers -- by jihadists. This can help us to better know what to expect from this dark aspect of our future, and to prepare for it. The Stray Cubs of the Caliphate By Scott Stewart … Continue reading Stratfor looks at the stray cubs of the Caliphate
Summary: We have had many episodes of lone wolf terrorism. Each produces a tsunami of stories, but so far no strategic effects. Here Stratfor examines grassroots terrorism, helping us to better know what to expect. Putting Grassroots Terrorism in the Proper Perspective Lead analyst: Scott Stewart. Stratfor, 8 December 2016. When it comes to claiming … Continue reading Stratfor cuts through the hype about grassroots terrorism
Summary: A large literature discusses the effectiveness of foreign armies and their tools against insurgencies, but few ask about the other side. Does terrorism work for insurgents? A new book by Richard English fills that gap, with some surprising conclusions. Since terrorism is a key tool of 4GW, the dominant form of war in our … Continue reading Does terrorism work? Richard English gives the answer.
Summary: The Nice incident was the latest in a long series of jihadist attacks in Europe. Here we look at the mass immigration which made it almost inevitable, and the likely effects. The resulting political destabilization will make mitigate (there is no cure) more difficult -- and more attacks are coming. The attack in Nice … Continue reading Causes and effects of the Nice attack
Summary: The fall of Fallujah and the Ramadan attacks mark a decisive retreat of the jihadist (led by ISIS) from Mao's Phase 3 operations (holding areas) back to Phase 2 (attacks on the government, terrorism). Last week Stratfor looked at Fallujah; here is their analysis of the Ramadan attacks. Eventually it will get crushed as … Continue reading Stratfor: What the Ramadan Attacks Reveal About ISIS
Summary: With hysteria building in the West about terrorism, Stratfor provides an analytical look at the origins of terrorism -- an understanding essential if we are to prevent it from spreading. This discussion will not, of course, affect the public debate which is driven mostly by fiction and fear. How Terrorist Trends Develop By Scott … Continue reading Stratfor: Terrorism doesn’t ‘just happen’. Here’s how it develops.