Summary: The Democratic Party’s activists believe the news about Trump’s associates means that they will win big in November – a Blue Wave – followed by impeachment in the House. The polls tell a different story.
The news media keep us posted about Trump’s low job approval, a prerequisite for impeachment and conviction. They seldom compare Trump’s job approval to that of Democratic presidents at this point in their term. See the surprising results below, from Gallup’s Presidential job approval polls.
Compare Trump vs. Obama
Compare Trump vs. Bill Clinton
Compare Trump vs. Carter
More vital information journalists seldom say
For two years RussiaGate has been the primary attack on Trump (although secondary attacks are numerous as the stars in the sky). Partisans, such as Paul Krugman, talk as if the most extreme accusations have been obviously proven. Yet polls show that the public does not care. Seldom has so much political capital been expended for so little result.
The strong economy is one reason for the resilience of Trump’s support. The economic acceleration that began in Obama’s time continues, to Trump’s benefit. See the key metrics of per capita real GDP and jobs (nonfarm payrolls).
Robert Merry explains another reason “Why Trump’s Approval Numbers Won’t Budge.”
“Because this isn’t about the fate of Trump so much as the future of America. During the 2016 presidential campaign, Trump opened up a series of fresh fault lines in American politics by advocating new directions for the country that no other politician would discuss. They included a clamp-down on illegal immigration and a serious reduction in overall immigration after a decades-long influx of unprecedented proportions; an effort to address the hollowing out of America’s industrial capacity through trade policies; an end to our nation-building zeal and the wars of choice spawned by it; and a promise to curtail the power of elites who gave us unfettered immigration, an industrial decline, endless wars, years of lukewarm economic growth, and an era of globalism that slighted old-fashioned American nationalism. …
“Before Trump’s 2016 emergence onto the political scene, many liberals believed the American future belonged to what political analyst Ron Brownstein called the “coalition of the ascendant” – including racial minorities, immigrants, Millennials, and highly educated whites residing primarily along the nation’s two coasts. They were convinced this ascendant force would eventually overwhelm the declining white majority and usher in a new era of globalism, open borders, identity politics, free trade, cultural individualism, foreign policy interventionism, and gun control.
“Trump interrupted the coalition of the ascendant on its way to U.S. political hegemony. In the process, he touched off an epic struggle over the definition of America.
“For those committed to the new world envisioned by the coalition of the ascendant, it is easy to see Trump, with all of his crudeness and vulgarity, as evil. After all, he’s personally distasteful and he wants to destroy the America of their dreams. But for Trump supporters, he represents their last hope for preserving the old America. These people view the stakes as so high that the president’s personal indecency and civic brutishness simply don’t register as problems. They may wish for a more wholesome leader, but no such person has emerged to take up their cause.”
Unless more damaging information emerges, impeaching a president supported by 40% of Americans risks igniting a political crisis. That might enrage and energize conservatives to a degree not seen since the 1960s. Democrats might rue the day of their success.
But I doubt they will try, although the pressure from their base would be immense. They might attempt to cripple Team Trump by a barrage of House investigations, producing a blizzard of “incriminating” leaks. That might work to the GOP’s advantage, distracting the Democrats from pushing a policy platform that benefits most Americans.
See “Will Trump be impeached – or is it just a liberal fantasy?” by Tom McCarthy in The Guardian — “Only two presidents in history have been impeached, but murmurs continue to surround Trump. Here’s how the process would work – if it would at all.” He does not say why liberals fantasize about having the competent and far-Right Pence as President.
Allan Lichtman’s The Case for Impeachment, released in April, describes the various reasons Congress could remove Trump from the White House – and how it might be done. He is a professor of history at American University.
For More Information
Ideas! For shopping ideas see my recommended books and films at Amazon.
Tw of the first crop of books about the Trump years
Trumpocracy: The Corruption of the American Republic by David Frum (2018).
Fire and Fury: Inside the Trump White House by Michael Wolff (2018).