Summary: COVID-19 is a test for America’s ability to cope with the severe crises that lie ahead in the 21st century. Our prosperity, perhaps our survival, might depend on how well we learn from it. Let’s start by looking at the crisis management methods of our senior leaders. It’s the key to success – or failure.
It’s fun to watch America go bonkers, in a gallows humor kind of way, from COVID-19. Countless articles, blog posts, and (god help us) chain emails by amateurs doubting the official COVID-19, recalculating the numbers, and inventing their own numbers. Amateurs building epidemiological models (why do universities bother with graduate schools for this stuff, if it is so easy?) and issuing bold confident predictions. Amateurs boldly confidently announcing that they know the origins of the epidemic. The only thing amateurs aren’t doing is inventing treatments and vaccines.
Instead, let’s ask operationally important and useful questions. Such as these.
- What was the process by which US officials instituted lock-downs in areas that were not hot spots? That is, moving beyond WHO’s recommendations of social distancing, testing, contract tracing, and quarantines of those exposed?
- What experts were consulted in this process? Did they give formal opinions?
- What models were relied upon? “Lots” is not an answer. What was the process of evaluating them?
- As new data comes in, what formal process is being used to update the models and produce formal advice for policy-makers about restarting the economy?
Success in crisis management usually results to a large degree from the process followed; seldom the result of the bold leader pulling brilliant decisions out of the air. The better the process, the more effective the situation is managed. Here are my guesses (guesses!) about this pandemic. I do not have the time to research them, so toss them out for comment and correction.
The Process
There was no effective process at the national or state level, that our leaders panicked, and that a herd effect resulted – with officials copying what others did. There were meetings, many meetings. Many people were informally consulted, with no process for collating their advice. The impact of each person’s advice depended more on their boldness and personal appearance rather than their qualifications or record.
Also, the pool consisted of politicians, bureaucrats, amateur epidemiologists (e.g., economists, who love to cosplay other kinds of experts), and epidemiologists (and a few in closely related fields, such as immunology). Unfortunately, this provides no meaningful questioning of the epidemiologists. The politicians are ignorant and the economists sow confusion.
Experts from related fields can challenge the epidemiologists, revealing limitations in their guidance that would not otherwise appear (this has been one of my top recommendations for dealing with climate change). People like Michael Levitt, a biophysicist who teaches structural biology at Stanford University and received the Nobel prize in 2013 for “the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems.” In a March 13 interview, he explained why his early predictions about COVID-19 in China proved correct, and he puts this pandemic in a useful context.
“[T}here are years when flu is raging, like in the U.S. in 2017, when there were three times the regular number of mortalities. And still, we did not panic. That is my message: you need to think of corona like a severe flu. It is four to eight times as strong as a common flu, and yet, most people will remain healthy ….”
My guess is that a well-assembled team of experts in February or early March would have said that there was inadequate data about COVID-19 to draw strong conclusions or make reliable predictions. The numbers about those infected and deaths were of low quality. Key factors like R0 in the US urban and rural areas could not be meaningfully estimated. And the models were themselves unreliable for use with COVID-19.
There was little analysis
Making public policy requires a comparison of costs and benefits. Costs including suffering and deaths. Leaders cannot believe that lives are priceless or of infinite value. Most large public infrastructure projects produced a toll of workers crippled and killed. Decisions about safety levels of transportation (e.g., cars, highways, aircraft) systems mean balancing monetary costs vs. lives. The process is the same for managing wars and epidemics. Since these are rarer, decision-makers must be shown the economic and human cost of past epidemics in US history.
Also, decision-makers have to be told the effects of bold actions to mitigate the epidemic. Bankruptcies mean lives blighted. Schools closed for long periods mean lives blighted (mostly among children of the poor, since the gap between them and the upper classes will widen even further). Putting the economy into a coma will make the poor poorer. Also, on past experience – the gap between the rich and poor will widen, with costs (perhaps large) to be paid in the future.
Producing this information in a coherent form requires a competent staff, able to tap America’s large pool of experts. This means producing a briefing of perhaps ten or twenty pages and a few hours in length.
There were not formal recommendations
In my decades of experience in corporations and Scouting I found that there is magic in people’s signatures. Voting for the Declaration of Independence was fun, signing it was a commitment (see details about the signing). There are no leaders on a Scouting trek without their signatures on a Tour Permit (it creates a burden of responsibility and the change in behavior is like magic). People will sagely nod during committee discussions, but snap to attention when required to make a formal vote.
I doubt that there was a formal advisory committee making formal recommendations with signatures of those agreeing and dissenting.
If this all ends badly, either from the effects of COVID-19 or an economic depression, I doubt that historians will easily determine responsibility. This is a feature, not a bug, to those involved. Responsibility is assigned and seldom spontaneously sought.
Harsh Questions will eventually be asked
I suspect politicians were most influenced by horrific predictions by models of mass deaths from an unmitigated epidemic. These cannot be disproved by the experience in most nations, who took different kinds of strong defensive actions. This is like Y2K, in one sense. The US spent roughly $200 billion (in today’s dollars) to prepare. Yet nations that did little to prepare suffered no ill effects.
Although the COVID-19 pandemic continues, questions are already being asked. Some nations doing little, like Sweden, are doing OK when considering the costs they have avoided. Ditto the poor and crowded nations of South Asia (see this article).
The models will eventually be rerun with more accurate data, reflecting a wide range of national mitigation policies. Eventually, we will know the economic cost of the lockdown. From the early days, I predicted it would create a depression (details in this March post). Now I wonder if it will be catastrophic for America.
This might have big consequences for scientists and our leaders. Or perhaps not. In ClownWorld America we might just blame it all on China, start a Cold War, which accidentally goes hot, and creates new problems which erase today’s ills from our memory. Who remembers the repeated severe crises in the decade before 1914, whose ignored lessons led to that disaster?
Lessons for Climate Change
COVID-19 provided a test for our ability to respond to a crisis that we saw only through the eyes of scientists. It has been run by ClownWorld rules, just as we have handled climate change. But we can learn from this experience. Its lessons can help us better deal with climate change the perhaps worse threats that lie ahead in the 21st century.
Posts about COVID-19
- Hidden news about the epidemic sweeping across America! – Fake news drives out good news.
- A devastating epidemic spreads across America – An epidemic of panic and ignorance.
- The info superhighway makes us stupid about COVID-19.
- Blaming China soothes an America fighting COVID-19.
- Lessons for America from COVID-19.
- We can’t defeat our foes because we cannot see them.
- COVID-19 is a harsh teacher. Let’s learn from it.
- COVID-19 reveals the greatest threat to America.
For More Information
See “The chaotic government response to coronavirus is closer to the failures of 1914 than the determination of 1940” by Patrick Cockburn in The Independent.
To see successful leadership from the White House during a crisis, look at JFK’s handling of the Cuban Missile Crisis. See the book Vietnam If Kennedy Had Lived: the Virtual JFK
Ideas! For some holiday shopping ideas, see my recommended books and films at Amazon. Also, see a powerful and disturbing story about “Birth of a Man of Steel …for the Soviet Union.”
If you liked this post, like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. See all posts about Reforming America: steps to a new politics, about propaganda, about the importance of clear vision, and especially these…
- See the ugly cost of the next big flu pandemic. We can do more to prepare.
- Stratfor: The superbugs are coming. We have time to prepare.
- Posts debunking the hysteria about the 2009 swine flu in America.
- Posts debunking the hysteria about the 2015 ebola epidemic in America.
- Important: A vaccine against the fears that make us weak.
A medieval city defeats a plague
Florence Under Siege:
Surviving Plague
in an Early Modern City
.
By John Henderson (2019), professor of Italian renaissance history at U of London.
I strongly recommend reading this fascinating review of it in the London Review of Books, with its great excerpts. From the publisher …
“Plague remains the paradigm against which reactions to many epidemics are often judged. Here, John Henderson examines how a major city fought, suffered, and survived the impact of plague. Going beyond traditional oppositions between rich and poor, this book provides a nuanced and more compassionate interpretation of government policies in practice, by recreating the very human reactions and survival strategies of families and individuals.
“From the evocation of the overcrowded conditions in isolation hospitals to the splendor of religious processions, Henderson analyzes Florentine reactions within a wider European context to assess the effect of state policies on the city, street, and family. Writing in a vivid and approachable way, this book unearths the forgotten stories of doctors and administrators struggling to cope with the sick and dying, and of those who were left bereft and confused by the sudden loss of relatives.”
Hi Larry,
As if there weren’t enough moving parts, did you see that
Trump tweeted I have instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea.
Quotes from an NPR article:
What could possibly go wrong?
Regards,
Bill
Bill,
America has enjoyed having an entertaining clown as president. The fiasco of COVIS-19 shows one of the disadvantages.
Trump’s eagerness for war with China AND Iran might illustrate another.
Many nations have fallen from their stupidity. We might wind up on that list.
[S]ome nations doing little, like Sweden, are doing OK when considering the costs they have avoided.
Current COVID-19 Death Toll for Scandinavian Countries:
Denmark- 384.
Finland- 149.
Norway- 187.
Sweden- 1,937.
What is the cost of a human life……?
Brian
“What is the cost of a human life……?”
Yes, that is exactly the question. Whether building cars or buildings, designing drugs, fighting wars or epidemics, prudent policy makers must set reasonable prices on a life.
The alternative is massive national suffering. In case, from a possible severe depression.
American understood this in the past, like adults. I wonder if we do now, and are prepared for the costs of our folly. A few thousand lives might be saved (the number is the key for this balancing) at the cost of millions or tens of millions of lives blasted.
I reread my comment and it sounded a bit sanctimonious, that wasn’t my intention. This subject hits close to home as my wife is mid 60’s with asthma. H1N1 put her in the hospital and her lungs are now 10 years older. I am doing everything like her life depended on it, as it does.
This virus is a sneaky mean one and the human suffering when it gets out of hand isn’t statistically quantifiable.
I don’t seriously believe that the economy will suffer long term damage from this quarantine but that could be because I’m old enough to remember when the middle class was strong enough to buffer against these economic downturns.
Brian,
I am sorry to hear about your wife’s experience with this.
“I’m old enough to remember when the middle class was strong enough to buffer against these economic downturns.”
That was never true for the middle class, and unspeakably less for the poorer classes. They just suffered, sometimes dying of starvation or cold or lack of medical care.
We have shut down much of the economy. We don’t know how bad it is, but probably of Great Depression magnitude in the decline (hopefully not induration).
“I don’t seriously believe that the economy will suffer long term damage from this”
Neither nor anybody knows that. There are no clear precedents. The US and world economies are mind-blowingly complex, beyond anybody’s intuition.
Brian,
I am sorry to hear about your wife’s experience with this.
“I’m old enough to remember when the middle class was strong enough to buffer against these economic downturns.”
That was never true for the middle class, and unspeakably less for the poorer classes. They just suffered, sometimes dying of starvation or cold or lack of medical care.
We have shut down much of the economy. We don’t know how bad it is, but probably of Great Depression magnitude in the decline (hopefully not induration).
Indeed, this seems to have been the primary goal of the Executive branch here: Avoid blame; or if blame must come, avoid it being centered upon the Primary Person.
SF,
I prefer to avoid guessing about motives.
But it is very clear by now this was a broad institutional failure by the US government. The career experts at the FDA screwed up. The Navy took inadequate precautions to protect their ships.
The vastly expensive activation of two Navy hospital ships proved useless. The Army mobile hospital sent to Washington proved useless.
And the senior levels of the Federal government, appointed and elected, acted incompetently.
And much of the US public went bonkers, second guessing doctors and going hysterical about China.
This is only a partial list.
Lots of blame to go around. Above all, evidence for the senescence of US society. Old, rigid, locked orientation, incapable of adapting faster well to new circumstances.
And above all else, probably incapable of learning from experience.
A dark tale, indeed.
Larry, you are correct when you state “There was no effective process”, “but snap to attention when required to make a formal vote”, and “seldom the result of the bold leader pulling brilliant decisions out of the air.” These attributes are the opposite of good plans, and most definitely opposite of legally mandated action plans.
One thing that needs to be added to the article in the failure section is the requirement that it be available to those not only carrying out the work, but those that are affected by it.
Here are some legal examples: The lines of authority and responsibility for those conducting the response, and the roles of those not responding. Special equipment or needs are listed and the manner of not just distribution, but how such are to be maintained in working order are part of this.
In other words, there is always overlapping scrutiny and designated responsible parties. Also, a certification statement by the Responsible Party(ies), that under their direction the plan was completed. Part of the certification statement is that it is signed under penalty of law that it meets the statutory requirements. Usually part of the statutory requirements is that the Responsible Parties provide the necessary personnel, capital for meeting requirements, proper maintenance for the equipment, periodic review, often by a third party. This is typical for life threatening chemicals, and unsafe work conditions in EHS (Environmental, Health, and Safety) programs. Most of these required plans have Control or Management in the title or in the regulations.
Note, these were set up by our Congress, and our bureaucracies. The bureaucracies also inspect and grade efforts. Bad work gets fined, unacceptable work with injuries can and does include jail time. ALL of this is part of, and is known by our government. So it is hard for me, as a professional in this area, to give a passing grade. I wrote and kept ten such plans up to date and in compliance for 30 years at a medium sized facility.
Generally, management of many is the same as management of few. It is a matter of organization. And to control many is the same as to control few. – Sun Tzu
A disorderly mob is no more an army than a heap of building materials is a house – Socrates
If a man does not know to what port he is sailing, no wind is favourable. – Seneca
To lead untrained people to war is to throw them away – Confucius
Peter_F_Drucker
Management is doing things right; leadership is doing the right things.
A good plan carried out vigorously, is better that a great plan carried out half assed. John F Pittman explaining to management the need to get a plan in play before the fines start coming.
How do you arrive at your “few thousand” figure? Most reasonable estimates are in the several million range. Sure, victims are mostly old, so if we correct for years lost we’re still looking at the death toll from WWII + the Civil War put together.
If we #CrushTheCurve and get to a South Korea-style regime of testing, contact tracing and targeted quarantine we’re only looking at a shutdown of a couple of months. Basically what China was able to pull of. So, 80 % out of work for 2 months.
Reminds of France, where 50 % of the population is out of work every August. As you know, they’re reduced to eating rats and selling their children on a yearly basis.
Lives “blasted”? A bit melodramatic.Economic hardship, but with the physical and capital infrastructure untouched, knowledge base not given time to atrophy and most of the relevant personnel still alive why would this put a major dent in our economic output over the long term? I mean, apart from the sheer idiocy and mismanagement of our elites?
West Germany had a big chunk of her working age men killed, was pounded to rubble, forcibly de-industrialized and under hostile military occupation. Under those conditions it took 9 years for per-capita GDP to recover. I think it’s being a bit melodramatic to assume our situation is anywhere near the same level of hardship as that.
“Blasted”? Life expectancy increased during the great depression.
It’s also not a binary choice. Much of the decline in business started before the lockdown, because people, oddly enough, seem to be less eager to die for the stock market than economists would prefer. So without a lockdown you’re looking at an even worse, deeper, longer economic decline as the virus rages through the population, the health care system collapses and nobody goes to restaurants because people are collapsing in the streets, suffocating to death as their lungs fill with fluid.
The way exponential growth works, the harder and faster you implement control measures, the faster you can get back to business and the smaller the economic impact. China basically pulled that off, but, again, they are largely staffed by scientists who understand math, not by lawyers who understand how to cheat and lie. And no amount of voting or signing or committees or other parliamentary procedures can fix stupid.
Instead, we went half-assed with our countermeasures, hesitated and bungled the response and are slowly drawing out the pain, planning to lose gracefully like the nation of pussies we’ve become.
Time to buck up and tackle this thing head-on like Americans used to be able to do.
Scripo,
“How do you arrive at your “few thousand” figure? Most reasonable estimates are in the several million range.”
All data in the FM website is of the US unless explicitly stated otherwise. I’ve seen no predictions of millions of deaths in the US with any kind of rational defensive programs (even without massive lockdowns). I was comparing the results of rational defensive measures begun in January with the massive lockdowns being done now.
“If we #CrushTheCurve and get to a South Korea-style regime of testing, contact tracing and targeted quarantine we’re only looking at a shutdown of a couple of months.”
We began in mid March. It is now late April. Check back in mid-May and let’s check you confident prediction.
“Lives “blasted”? A bit melodramatic.Economic hardship, but with the physical and capital infrastructure untouched,”
I suggest that you get out of your chair and visit some inner city areas. Children of the upper classes have involved parents, home computers, broadband internet – and are mostly continuing their education. Report back what fraction of inner city kids have those things.
““Blasted”? Life expectancy increased during the great depression.”
See above. I think you’ll learn a lot from some time outside your bubble.
“I think it’s being a bit melodramatic to assume our situation is anywhere near the same level of hardship as that.”
I suggest that you reply to direct quotes, as I do. Rather than making stuff up, attributing it to me, and making up smart rebuttals.
“So without a lockdown you’re looking at an even worse, deeper, longer economic decline as the virus rages through the population, the health care system collapses and nobody goes to restaurants because people are collapsing in the streets, suffocating to death as their lungs fill with fluid.”
Your imagination is vivid. Let’s check back after this is over, with those nations that did massive broad lockdowns – and those that did more targeted programs. Also, got to love the bold confident way you make stuff up.
“Time to buck up and tackle this thing head-on like Americans used to be able to do.”
Wow! Big bold talk! What do you suggest that we do that’s not being done?
Scripo.
“Lives “blasted”? A bit melodramatic.Economic hardship, but with the physical and capital infrastructure untouched,”
Also visit families of the small businesses wiped out. Bankrupt. Lifetimes of work and saving gone. Report back about how well they are doing.
“What was the process by which US officials instituted lock-downs in areas that were not hot spots? That is, moving beyond WHO’s recommendations of social distancing, testing, contract tracing, and quarantines of those exposed?”
John Robb, author of Brave New War used the phrase “networked consensus” on his Twitter feed. A better description might be a school of fish. Governors and State and local officials began competing to see who could draw up the most draconian and bizarre rules. The fish all swan in the same direction at the same time.
What was (is) missing here was any desire on the part of Congress to exercise it’s authority to regulate interstate commerce. Trump at one point claimed he has the power to overrule the Governors. (I claim that I have the power to bend steel with my mind but that’s another topic.) But Congress could have passed a law Federalizing these lockdown decisions on the grounds that they impact commerce and this is a national emergency. But the Governors were happy to wield dictatorial power, and no one wanted the responsibility.
“As new data comes in, what formal process is being used to update the models and produce formal advice for policy-makers about restarting the economy?”
A decent question. Governor Cooper here in North Carolina has just extended the lockdown to at least the 8th of May
https://www.rhinotimes.com/featured-article/cooper-extends-state-stay-at-home-order-to-may-8/
The conditions for reopening seem arbitrary, there is no clue how they were arrived at, or how long the Governor thinks they might take to achieve. There is no indication of who was consulted for advice.
State and local government does not attract a high caliber of people. Some of these Governors are drunk on the dictatorial powers that Congress has negligently allowed the to exercise. Part of the problem is that no one wants responsibility for giving a reopen order if there is a second wave of infections and the media decides to accuse the person or group giving such an order of mass murder or whatever. At the moment, they are more afraid of criticism by the media for reopening than they are of the economic and social costs of an indefinite lockdown.
At some point, maybe when economic hardships become acute, it may occur to these people that they have trashed the tax base that they need to help the people whose jobs they destroyed and whose businesses they ruined, and that the above people may turn out in force in November at the polls. Which is why I wonder if some of the state and local Pharaohs might try postponing or canceling elections because State Of Emergency.