Summary: Demographic changes are the essence of social change. The composition of America’s population will change drastically during the next 50 years. We are not preparing for what is coming because we pretend nothing will happen.
(1) An equal distribution by age
Age distribution graphs were always some kind of pyramid. Ours will become a cylinder. This will be a unique event in history, with people over 60 roughly a third of the population – instead of a tiny fraction, as in pre-industrial societies. Children will be an unusually small fraction of the population. There will be fare fewer mothers (i.e., caring for young children) than ever before in history.
This new distribution of ages will radically change society’s dynamics in ways we cannot now imagine. To mention some of the big ones: fewer families, more elderly, and slower advancement up career leaders.
(2) A radically different racial/ethnic distribution
This graph from Pew Research shows the future of America. That is the most radical statement you will read today, or perhaps this year. Some react to it with emotional denial, as too scary to contemplate. Some react to it with idealistic denial, believing that it will be a wonderful peaceful multi-ethnic society – like in Zootopia.
My guess: people of the future will look back at the former group with contempt because they saw the problem but did nothing. They will regard the latter group as delusional loons.
Look at Generation Z. Non-hispanic whites are half of Gen Z. That is the baseline, our inevitable baseline future based on people already born. The effects will be immense. To mention just one factor, African-Americans and Hispanics have higher crime rates than whites (see here and here).
That grossly overstates what their faction will be in the future. Open borders (i.e., high rates of immigration) combined with whites’ lower fertility rates will make them a minority sometime in the next 20 – 30 years, with their fraction of the population continuing to shrink after passing that milestone.
A large fraction of immigrants in the past decade and today have low education and skills. They flood into a nation with a surplus of such people (hence all the stories of desperate immigrants, esp. illegals, being abused by employers). They bring with them the beliefs that made their home nations so dysfunctional. When they come here, they change America as we change them. Even more so as many come from nations whose people assimilate slowly – and in numbers that result in slow assimilation (see the research here).
Lastly, we no longer have the strong mechanisms that “encouraged” assimilation in the generations before the borders were closed by FDR in the 1930s.
The combined effect of these factors working over the next several decades will drastically reshape America in ways we cannot predict, probably changing America beyond recognition. The changed age distribution will force changes, their nature unknowable. The massive changes in racial and ethnic distribution, boosted by immigration, will force more changes. My guess (guess!) is that America will more closely resemble Third World nations.
The combination, along with changes from normal social evolution and new technology, might destabilize America. The effects of that could be very bad. We can improve our odds by preparing, starting now.
For More Information
Ideas! For shopping ideas see my recommended books and films at Amazon.
- Essential reading: See the hidden history of immigration into America (it ruins the narrative).
- Important: Diversity is a grand experiment. We’re the lab rats.
- The lies about immigration keeping the borders open.
- The smoke & fire of the new Sweden is our future.
- Prepare for mass migrants, the greatest challenge to America.
- The Left goes full open borders, changing America forever.
- William Lind explains how to defend against an invasion.
- Our rulers make a new people for America.
- Fast action now can solve the immigration crisis.
- The devastating economic effect of mass migration.
Three books about immigration, all well worth reading
See George Friedman’s (founder of Stratfor) prescient predictions about the American southwest in his 2009 book The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century. He describes where we’re going, facts too disturbing for most experts to say in public. This is a useful feature of such writing: since it is just guessing, we allow statements about the obvious that are politically or socially unacceptable (just as are, in a different way, statements by a court jester).
Europe is our future. If we act quickly, we can learn and avoid their mistakes. These two books provide clear warnings.
Reflections on the Revolution In Europe: Immigration, Islam, and the West by Christopher Caldwell (2009). See this post about it: About Europe’s historic experiment with open borders.
The Strange Death of Europe: Immigration, Identity, Islam by Douglass Murray (2017). See these posts with excerpts from the book: Martin van Creveld’s reaction to Europe’s rape epidemic. Warning of the “Strange Death of Europe”, and Strange perspectives on the challenges facing Europe.