Forecasts!

What possible futures lie ahead for America.  We can only guess, but good guesses will help us prepare. Also see these other FM reference pages about my forecasts:

  1. Predictions – the successes.
  2. Smackdowns – the failures.

“The future, for tomorrow belongs only to the people who prepare for it today.”
— Malcolm X when speaking at the Founding Rally of the Organization of Afro-American Unity on 28 June 1964, as quoted in By Any Means Necessary (1970).

Contents

  1. Guesses about the future of politics and geopolitics
  2. Guesses about the future economy
  3. Forecasts of US economic growth
  4. The next wave of automation (aka the robot revolution)
  5. Forecasts of our society in the future.
  6. Forecasts of future climates
  7. Visions of the future world
  8. About the Singularity
  9. Guesses about the future by military and intelligence agencies

(1)  Guesses about the future of politics and geopolitics

  1. Forecast: Death of the American Constitution.
  2. The Fate of Israel.
  3. Is America’s decline inevitable? No..
  4. Experts, with wrinkled brows, warn about the future — Remarks by General Michael V. Hayden, Director of the Central Intelligence
  5. Good news about the 21st century, a counterbalance to the doomsters.
  6. COIN – a perspective from 23rd century textbooks.
  7. Words to fear in the 21st century: Lǎo hǔ, lǎo hǔ, Lǎo hǔ.
  8. Seeing today through the eyes of a future historian – Looking back at the Af-Pak War
  9. “Welcome to 2025 – American Preeminence Is Disappearing Fifteen Years Early” by Michael Klare.
  10. A third American regime will arise from the ashes of the present one.
  11. A look at the future of the world’s political and economic order.
  12. Today’s conservative doomster warning (ludicrous but fun).
  13. The good news:  America’s politics are neither polarized nor dysfunctional.  That’s also the bad news. — Expect progress in 2013!
  14. The story of the early 21st century: the future arrives, forcing us to build a new world order.
  15. John Bolton reveals a serious threat to America. — Looking at an extreme scenario.
  16. Japan refuses to die, soon to become a 21st century star.
  17. Conversions to Islam will reshape the West.
  18. See the future. It begins the day after tomorrow. – A collection of my predictions.

(2) Guesses about the structure of the future economy

  1. What will America look like after this recession? – More forecasts.  The recession might change so many things, from the distribution of wealth within the US to the ranking of global powers.
  2. A look at our future, when our $promises$ to ourselves come due.
  3. America on its way from superpower to banana republic.
  4. A look at the future of the world’s political and economic order.
  5. Recovering lost knowledge about exhaustion of the Earth’s resources (such as Peak Oil).
  6. Looking into the New Year – what can we look forward to in 2012?.=
  7. The big question for the world: is China growing, slowing, or in recession?

(3)  Forecasts of US economic growth

  1. WWI warns us about markets’ ability to see the future.
  2. Has America grown old, and can no longer grow? Or are wonders like the singularity in our future?
  3. Why America’s growth is slowing, and a solution — Imagine bringing June Cleaver from her 1957 home to today’s equivalent; she’d be astonished at our lack of progress.  Look at how we’ve underperformed futurist Herman Kahn’s 1967 expectations for the year 2000.
  4. Larry Summers gives us the bad news. Worse, the only solution is more of the same.
  5. Looking at America’s future: economic stagnation, or will computers take our jobs?
  6. Dreams of a boom fade & attention turns to secular stagnation.
  7. Do we face secular stagnation or a new industrial revolution?
  8. The IMF warns us of economic stagnation & suggests fixes. We should listen.
  9. As boomers retire they create a drag on US GDP that will last for decades.
  10. Ben Bernanke sees the great slowdown in technological progress.
  11. The missing issue in the 2016 campaign: America’s long slowdown.
  12. Poorly prepared Boomers retiring means hard times for them and for America.
  13. The Fed sees years of slowing growth. Prepare for years of political turmoil.
  14. Fewer new superstar firms: another step towards secular stagnation for America.
  15. Debunking fears in October 2018 of an imminent recession: About the coming recession.
  16. Look ahead to America’s next great boom!
  17. Many of our cities are collapsing – The next 2 decades will be ugly for some.

(4)  The next phase of automation (aka The robot revolution)

This has been moved to its own page:  The 3rd Industrial Revolution has begun.

(5)  Forecasts of our society in the future.

  1. A look ahead at the New America, after the gender wars.
  2. Technology will shape our society as porn and sexbots destroy 21st century marriage.
  3. The coming crash of marriage: why, and what’s next.
  4. The Left’s bold plans for America – and the coming crash.

(6) Forecasts about future climate

  1. More about the forecast for flooded cities in the late 21st century.
  2. Checking up on past forecasts about climate change, a guide to the future.
  3. Good news: rising seas might not cover these Pacific islands.
  4. Will we see the end of snow?
  5. Is our certain fate a coal-burning climate apocalypse? No!
  6. There will be little public policy action by the US to fight climate change – until the weather decides the debate.
  7. Conclusion to the series: Why skeptics will lose the US climate policy debate.
  8. The climate change crisis as seen from 2100 AD (a business as usual scenario).
  9. Daniel Davies’ insights about predictions can unlock the climate change debate.
  10. Celebrate Los Angeles’ survival, despite the prediction of its destruction in 2017.
  11. Read about the world of 2030 and see hidden truths.
  12. The bright light of fusion might burn away climate doomsters’ fears.

(7)  Visions of the future world

    1. Martin van Creveld explains the use of experts and oracles.
    2. A look at our history – from the 23rd century.
    3. A look back at our time from the 2100 A.D. edition of the Encyclopedia Britannica.
    4. Rollerball shows us one aspect of America, and a possible future.
    5. A vision of a perilous future for us all, and recommendations to avoid it.
    6. Visions of the future: Adam Posen asks what the world might look like if the 1% wins.
    7. Seven predictions about our future. Most are unusual. All are certain to happen (I think).
    8. See the trends shaping our future. Be forewarned, so you can prepare.
    9. Will our future be like Star Trek or Jupiter Ascending?
    10. One of the 20th century’s top minds sees a great 21st century for humanity – Thoughts about future from JM Keynes, one of the 20th century’s greatest minds.
    11. Arthur C. Clarke warns us about bold confident predictions.
    12. Arthur C. Clarke: use your imagination to see the future.
    13. Requiem for fear. Let’s learn from failed predictions to have confidence in ourselves & our future.
    14. Rebuttals to the big list of reasons why America will fall.
    15. Dreams of apocalypses show the brotherhood of America’s Left & Right.
    16. One of humanity’s greatest minds shows us the 21st century – John von Neumann (1955).
    17. See the future. It begins the day after tomorrow.
    18. Prepare for the coming changes. Changes in everything.

(8) About the Singularity

  1. Good news: The Singularity is coming (again), 8 December 2007
  2. The Singularity is in our past, 29 March 2009
  3. Has America grown old, and can no longer grow? Or are wonders like the singularity in our future?, 28 August 2012

(8)  Guesses about the future by military and intelligence agencies

The National Intelligence Council (NIC) is the US Intelligence Community’s (IC’s) center for midterm and long-term strategic thinking.

  1. “Air Force 2025“, conducted 1995-1996 for the Air Force Chief of Staff
  2. “Global Trends 2010“, National Intelligence Council, November 1997 (revision)
  3. “Global Trends 2015“, National Intelligence Council, December 2000 — “A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts”
  4. “Mapping the Global Future 2020“, National Intelligence Council, December 2004 — “Based on Consultations With non-governmental Experts Around the World”
  5. “Global Scenarios to 2025“, National Intelligence Council, February 2008
  6. Experts, with wrinkled brows, warn about the future, 2 May 2008 — Remarks by General Michael V. Hayden, Director of the Central Intelligence
  7. “Global Trends 2025“, National Intelligence Council, November 2008 — Here is a brief FM review.
  8. “Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)“, US Joint Forces Command, released 25 November 2008 — Here is a brief FM review.
  9. The Brit Ministry of Defense looks at world’s future – it’s grim, 28 November 2008
  10. A National Drug Threat Assessment – 2009, National Drug Intelligence Center of the US Department of Justice, 30 December 2008
  11. US Army – the antidote to US civil disorder, 3 January 2009
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