Forecasts for America & the World

What possible futures lie ahead for America.  We can only guess, but good guesses will help us prepare. Also see these other FM reference pages about my forecasts:

  1. Predictions – the successes.
  2. Smackdowns – the failures.

Contents

  1. Guesses about the future of politics and geopolitics
  2. Guesses about the future economy
  3. Forecasts of US economic growth
  4. The next wave of automation (aka the robot revolution)
  5. About the Singularity
  6. Forecasts of future climates
  7. Visions of the future world
  8. Guesses about the future by military and intelligence agencies

(1)  Guesses about the future of politics and geopolitics

  1. Forecast: Death of the American Constitution, 4 July 2006
  2. The Fate of Israel, 28 July 2006
  3. Is America’s decline inevitable? No., 21 January 2008
  4. Experts, with wrinkled brows, warn about the future, 2 May 2008 — Remarks by General Michael V. Hayden, Director of the Central Intelligence
  5. Good news about the 21st century, a counterbalance to the doomsters, 9 May 2008
  6. COIN – a perspective from 23rd century textbooks, 10 June 2008
  7. Words to fear in the 21st century: Lǎo hǔ, lǎo hǔ, Lǎo hǔ, 14 July 2008
  8. Seeing today through the eyes of a future historian, 25 September 2009 – Looking back at the Af-Pak War
  9. “Welcome to 2025 – American Preeminence Is Disappearing Fifteen Years Early” by Michael Klare, 7 March 2010
  10. A third American regime will arise from the ashes of the present one, 30 March 2010
  11. A look at the future of the world’s political and economic order, 4 June 2010
  12. Today’s conservative doomster warning (ludicrous but fun), 1 August 2010
  13. The good news:  America’s politics are neither polarized nor dysfunctional.  That’s also the bad news., 16 November 2011 — Expect progress in 2013!
  14. The story of the early 21st century: the future arrives, forcing us to build a new world order, 6 December 2010
  15. John Bolton reveals a serious threat to America. — Looking at an extreme scenario.
  16. Forecast: Clinton will crush Trump in November.

(2) Guesses about the structure of the future economy

  1. What will America look like after this recession?, 18 March 2008 – More forecasts.  The recession might change so many things, from the distribution of wealth within the US to the ranking of global powers.
  2. A look at our future, when our $promises$ to ourselves come due, 25 March 2010
  3. America on its way from superpower to banana republic, 28 March 2009
  4. A look at the future of the world’s political and economic order, 4 June 2010
  5. Recovering lost knowledge about exhaustion of the Earth’s resources (such as Peak Oil), 21 January 2011
  6. Looking into the New Year – what can we look forward to in 2012?, 20 December 2011
  7. The big question for the world: is China growing, slowing, or in recession?

(3)  Forecasts of US economic growth

  1. Some thoughts about the economy of mid-21st century America  — Thoughts about future from one of the 20th century’s greatest minds.
  2. Has America grown old, and can no longer grow? Or are wonders like the singularity in our future?
  3. Why America’s growth is slowing, and a solution — Imagine bringing June Cleaver from her 1957 home to today’s equivalent; she’d be astonished at our lack of progress.  Look at how we’ve underperformed futurist Herman Kahn’s 1967 expectations for the year 2000.
  4. Larry Summers gives us the bad news. Worse, the only solution is more of the same.
  5. Looking at America’s future: economic stagnation, or will computers take our jobs?
  6. Dreams of a boom fade & attention turns to secular stagnation.
  7. Do we face secular stagnation or a new industrial revolution?
  8. The IMF warns us of economic stagnation & suggests fixes. We should listen.
  9. As boomers retire they create a drag on US GDP that will last for decades.
  10. Ben Bernanke sees the great slowdown in technological progress.
  11. The missing issue in the 2016 campaign: America’s long slowdown.
  12. Poorly prepared Boomers retiring means hard times for them and for America.
  13. The Fed sees years of slowing growth. Prepare for years of political turmoil.
  14. Fewer new superstar firms: another step towards secular stagnation for America.
  15. Debunking the happy headlines about job growth.

(4)  The next phase of automation (aka The robot revolution)

This has been moved to its own page:  The 3rd Industrial Revolution has begun.

(5)  About the Singularity

  1. Good news: The Singularity is coming (again), 8 December 2007
  2. The Singularity is in our past, 29 March 2009
  3. Has America grown old, and can no longer grow? Or are wonders like the singularity in our future?, 28 August 2012

(6) Forecasts about future climate

  1. More about the forecast for flooded cities in the late 21st century.
  2. Checking up on past forecasts about climate change, a guide to the future.
  3. Good news: rising seas might not cover these Pacific islands.
  4. Will we see the end of snow?
  5. Is our certain fate a coal-burning climate apocalypse? No!
  6. There will be little public policy action by the US to fight climate change – until the weather decides the debate.
  7. Conclusion to the series: Why skeptics will lose the US climate policy debate.

(7)  Visions of the future world

  1. A look at our history – from the 23rd century.
  2. A look back at our time from the 2100 A.D. edition of the Encyclopedia Britannica.
  3. Rollerball shows us one aspect of America, and a possible future.
  4. A vision of a perilous future for us all, and recommendations to avoid it.
  5. Visions of the future: Adam Posen asks what the world might look like if the 1% wins.
  6. Seven predictions about our future. Most are unusual. All are certain to happen (I think).
  7. See the trends shaping our future. Be forewarned, so you can prepare.
  8. A look ahead at the New America, after the gender wars.
  9. Will our future be like Star Trek or Jupiter Ascending?

(8)  Guesses about the future by military and intelligence agencies

The National Intelligence Council (NIC) is the US Intelligence Community’s (IC’s) center for midterm and long-term strategic thinking.

  1. Air Force 2025“, conducted 1995-1996 for the Air Force Chief of Staff
  2. Global Trends 2010“, National Intelligence Council, November 1997 (revision)
  3. Global Trends 2015“, National Intelligence Council, December 2000 — “A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts”
  4. Mapping the Global Future 2020“, National Intelligence Council, December 2004 — “Based on Consultations With non-governmental Experts Around the World”
  5. Global Scenarios to 2025“, National Intelligence Council, February 2008
  6. Experts, with wrinkled brows, warn about the future, 2 May 2008 — Remarks by General Michael V. Hayden, Director of the Central Intelligence
  7. Global Trends 2025“, National Intelligence Council, November 2008 — Here is a brief FM review.
  8. Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)“, US Joint Forces Command, released 25 November 2008 — Here is a brief FM review.
  9. The Brit Ministry of Defense looks at world’s future – it’s grim, 28 November 2008
  10. A National Drug Threat Assessment – 2009, National Drug Intelligence Center of the US Department of Justice, 30 December 2008
  11. US Army – the antidote to US civil disorder, 3 January 2009

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