End of the post-WWII era

This page lists articles about the end of the Post-WWII geopolitical and economic regime.

Contents

Click on the link to jump to that section.

  1. Other relevant topics discussed on this site
  2. Causes
  3. Analysis
  4. Economics
  5. Forecasts
  6. Niall Ferguson’s articles


1.  Other relevant topics discussed on this site

For a full list of topics, see the FM reference page on the right side menu bar.  Of esp interest these days:


2. Causes

  1. A brief note on the US Dollar. Is this like August 1914?, 8 November 2007 — How the current situation is as unstable financially as was Europe geopolitically in early 1914.
  2. The post-WWII geopolitical regime is dying. Chapter One , 21 November 2007 — Why the current geopolitical order is unstable, describing the policy choices that brought us here.
  3. The US economy at Defcon 2, 11 March 2008 — Pretty self-explanatory.  Where are we in the downcycle?  What might the world look like when it ends?
  4. A picture of the post-WWII debt supercycle, 26 September 2008
  5. A look at our government’s debt – rising because we like to spend, 29 December 2009
  6. See the very essence of the US government’s financial problems (clue: it’s us), 2 April 2010
  7. Slashing R&D in favor of more important things, like wars and profits. Who cares about America’s future?, 26 August 2010


3.  Analysis of geopolitical change

  1. Power shifts from West to East: the end of the post-WWII regime in the news, 20 December 2007 — We are seeing another western industry ceding dominance to eastern competitors, one more step in a larger process.
  2. An important thing to remember as we start a New Year, 29 December 2007
  3. A recommendation to read these bulletins from the front!, 21 January 2008 — A brief note on today’s articles in the NY Times and Financial Times, with Brad Setser’s explanation of why they are important.
  4. Let us light a candle while we walk, lest we fear what lies ahead, 10 February 2008 — Putting the end of the post-WWII regime in a larger historical context.
  5. Our metastable Empire, built on a foundation of clay, 3 March 2008 — More thoughts on the “dreamland” described by Wolfgang Schivelbusch in The Culture of Defeat, and what it tells us about the foundation of the American empire.
  6. Slow steps to nationalizing the US financial sector, 7 April 2008 — Slowly Americans recognize what is happening.  More about how this will change our society.
  7. The world changed last week, with no headlines to mark the news, 25 April 2008 — Unnoticed, we have passed an important milestone on the road to peak oil.
  8. The most important story in this week’s newspapers, 22 May 2008 — How solvent is the US government? They report the facts to us every year.
  9. Prof Nouriel Roubini describes “The Decline of the American Empire”, 18 August 2008
  10. The World’s biggest mess, 22 August 2008
  11. “The changing balance of global financial power”, by Brad Setser, 22 August 2008
  12. Treasury Secretary Paulson leads us across the Rubicon, 9 September 2008
  13. High priority report: a geopolitical sitrep on the financial crisis, 15 September 2008
  14. Say good-bye to the old America. Welcome to our new socialist paradise!, 17 September 2008
  15. Another step away from our Constitutional system, with applause, 19 September 2008
  16. Essential steps to surviving the current crisis, 23 September 2008
  17. The most important news of the month. Perhaps the year., 29 September 2008
  18. German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrück explains how the world is changing, 30 September 2008
  19. America has changed. Why do so many foreigners see this, but so few Americans?, 1 October 2008
  20. America is changing. Read some chillling words from a liberal economist, 2 October 2008
  21. The transition between Imperial reigns: what will it mean for America?, 16 December 2008
  22. Update about China: a new center of the world, 13 December 2009
  23. China moves to the center of the world. America moves to the edge, 6 January 2010
  24. Would a default by the US government help America?, 21 February 2010
  25. The end of the world. That is, the end of the world we’ve known since WWII, 7 November 2010
  26. Two regions diverging, tearing the world apart. Birth pangs for a new geopolitical order., 18 November 2010
  27. It’s the end of the world we’ve known since WWII (updated status report), 29 June 2012


4.  Analysis of the economic changes reshaping the world

  1. Understatement can be a form of courage – a comment about the US economy, 28 February 2008 — Our leaders have begun to speak to us about unpleasant truths.  What might they be saying in a year or two?
  2. A giant breaks his chains and again walks the earth: inflation, 10 June 2008
  3. The geopolitics of inflation, an introduction, 17 June 2008
  4. Globalization and free trade – wonders of a past era, now enemies of America, 16 March 2009
  5. Beginning of the end of the Republic’s solvency. Soon come the first steps to a reformed regime – or a new regime., 14 August 2009
  6. Update on our government’s deteriorating solvency, 1 October 2009
  7. The falling US dollar – bane or boon?, 14 October 2009
  8. Another crack in Republic’s foundations: not the size of the debt, but when it’s due, 30 October 2009
  9. The Fed is not wildly printing money, as yet no hyperinflation, we’re not becoming Zimbabwe, 2 March 2010
  10. Why the U.S. cannot inflate its way out of debt, 15 March 2010
  11. Governments cannot go bankrupt, 2 April 2010
  12. Our government’s finances are broken. How do we compare with our peers?, 8 April 2010
  13. We can try to inflate away the government’s debt, but we’ll go broke before succeeding, 16 April 2010
  14. Is there any way out from the burden of government debt?, 10 June 2010
  15. Has America grown old, and can no longer grow? Or are wonders like the singularity in our future?, 28 August 2012


5.  Forecasts

  1. We have been warned. Death of the post-WWII geopolitical regime, Chapter II, 28 November 2007 — A long list of the warnings we have ignored, from individual experts and major financial institutions (links included).
  2. A warning from Professor Niall Ferguson, 4 January 2008
  3. Death of the post-WWII geopolitical regime, III – death by debt, 8 January 2008 — Origins of the long economic expansion from 1982 to 2006; why the down cycle will be so severe.
  4. Is America’s decline inevitable? No., 21 January 2008
  5. Geopolitical implications of the current economic downturn, 24 January 2008 — How will this recession end?  With re-balancing of the global economy — and a decline of the US dollar so that the US goods and services are again competitive.  No more trade deficit, and we can pay our debts.
  6. A happy ending to the current economic recession, 12 February 2008 – The political actions which might end this downturn, and their long-term implications.
  7. The US economy at Defcon 2, 11 March 2008 — Pretty self-explanatory.  Where are we in the downcycle?  What might the world look like when it ends?
  8. What will America look like after this recession?, 18 March 2008 — More forecasts.  The recession might change so many things, from the distribution of wealth within the US to the ranking of global powers.
  9. Another warning from our leaders, which we will ignore, 4 June 2008 — An extraordinarily clear warning from a senior officer of the Federal Reserve.
  10. Can the European Monetary Union survive the next recession?, 11 July 2008
  11. Big changes loom before us; why are they invisible to most experts?, 29 July 2008
  12. A look at one page of what lies ahead in America’s history, 7 August 2008
  13. “The Coming US Consumption Bust”, by Nouriel Roubini, 6 September 2008
  14. Can you see the signs of spring in the coming of winter? A note about the recession., 10 September 2008
  15. Effective treatment for this crisis will come with “The Master Settlement of 2009″, 5 October 2008
  16. A look at out future, 2009 – 2010 … and beyond, 9 November 2008
  17. Some thoughts about the economy of mid-21st century America, 12 January 2009
  18. A nickel summary about the state of the world (the geopolitical big picture), 11 February 2009
  19. The future, always in motion and so difficult to see, 18 March 2009
  20. America on its way from superpower to banana republic, 28 March 2009
  21. Beginning of the end of the Republic’s solvency. Soon come the first steps to a reformed regime – or a new regime., 14 August 2009
  22. A great speech by the PM of Greece. How soon until an American President says similar words?, 3 March 2010
  23. Worry not about America becoming like Zimbabwe. Worry about becoming like Argentina., 4 March 2010
  24. We might default on our governments’ debt in the future. Do you know how often we’ve done so in the past?, 5 March 2010
  25. A look at our future, when our $promises$ to ourselves come due, 25 March 2010
  26. A look at the future of the world’s political and economic order, 4 June 2010
  27. Is there any way out from the burden of government debt?, 10 June 2010
  28. Is the American Republic dying, as in the last days of the Roman Republic?, 20 July 2010
  29. The coming big increase in structural unemployment, 7 August 2010
  30. The story of the early 21st century: the future arrives, forcing us to build a new world order, 6 December 2010


6.  Links to article by Niall Ferguson

“Sinking Globalization“, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2005 — Summary:

Could globalization collapse? It may seem unlikely today. Yet despite many warnings, people were shocked the last time globalization crumbled, with the onslaught of World War I. Like today, that period was marked by imperial overstretch, great-power rivalry, unstable alliances, rogue regimes, and terrorist organizations. And the world is no better prepared for calamity now.

“The unconscious colossus: limits of (& alternatives to) American empire“, Daedalus, Spring 2005 — The first part is a summary of his book, Colossus: The Price of America’s Empire.  The second part discussed the future of the American, considering the war in Iraq and our internal weaknesses.

“Political risk and the international bond market between the 1848 revolution and the outbreak of the First World War“, Economic History Review, February 2006 — Abstract:

This article uses price data and editorial commentaries from the contemporary financial press to measure the impact of political events on investors’ expectations from the middle of the 19th century until WWI. Why do political events appear to affect the world’s biggest financial market, the London bond market, much less between 1881 and 1914 than they had between 1843 and 1880. In particular, why was the outbreak of WWI, an event traditionally seen as having been heralded by a series of international crises, not anticipated by investors.

The article considers how far the declining sensitivity of the bond market to political events was a result of the spread of the gold standard, increased international financial integration, or changes in the fiscal policies of the great powers. I suggest that the increasing national separation of bond markets offers a better explanation. However, even this structural change cannot explain why the London market was so slow to appreciate the risk of war in 1914. To investors, WWI truly came as a bolt from the blue.

“Empires with Expiration Dates“, Foreign Policy, September/October 2006 — Summary:

Empires drive history. But the empires of the past 100 years were short lived, none surviving to see the dawn of the new century. Today, there are no empires, at least not officially. But that could soon change if the United States – or even China – embraces its imperial destiny. How can they avoid the fate of those who came before them?

“Empire Falls“, Vanity Fair, October 2006 — Summary:

They called it “the American Century,” but the past 100 years actually saw a shift away from Western dominance. Through the long lens of Edward Gibbon’s The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, Rome 331 and America and Europe 2006 appear to have more than a few problems in common.

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