iran

A 4GW puzzle: what happened in the Straits of Hormuz?

What happened in the Straits of Hormuz on 6 January?  Malcolm Nance, in an article at the Small Wars Council, assures us that “the most recent incident is neither an attempt to create a modern-day Gulf of Tonkin incident nor a move by the IRGC to a new tactic”.  While Nance’s background gives assurance that his technical analysis of the incident …

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Will Israel commit suicide? More rumors of a strike at Iran

America has made many geopolitical mistakes, some very serious.  Nothing critical for a superpower, so long as we do not make too many. Israel operates far closer to the edge.   Small, geographically and economically vulnerable, surrounded by enemies, and heir to millennia of western antisemitism (Passages from Luther’s On the Jews and Their Lies could be read with applause at …

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The new NIE, another small step in the Decline of the State

Pat Lang perfectly captures the narrative for the release of the new National Intelligence estimate about Iran. The “jungle telegraph” in Washington is booming with news of the Iran NIE.  I am told that the reason the conclusions of the NIE were released is that it was communicated to the White House that “intelligence career …

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Is Iran dangerous, or a paper tiger?

Why has starting wars – aggressive wars, for conquest – usually proved fruitless in the modern era, the past few centuries (even back to the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648). Perhaps because so often the aggressors know so little about their targets, their designated victims. Japan’s elites knew little about America in 1941 – neither its …

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War with Iran, based on things that are not so

Wolf Pangloss wrote an interesting and detailed reply to Part I of my series on The Long War.  In it he describes why Iran is our enemy.  As a timely rebuttal see “The Iranian Challenge” in 19 November 2007 issue of The Nation, by Trita Parsi (Wikipedia entry).  He is the author of Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of …

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