alexis de tocquiville

Our futures seen in snippets of the past

An unfortunate side-effect of historical analysis — in which one leaps across centuries by turning a page — is that we can forget how quickly regime change occurs. The pressure builds for generations, the cracks slowly spreading and deepening almost invisibly … but the final steps can occur with astonishing speed. Recent history provides vivid …

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A happy ending to the current economic recession

History shows the difficulty of predicting the short-term path of economic or political events.  However, we can often see the medium-term with greater clarity.  In January 1942 none could forecast the events of the next 44 months, but it did not take an expert to see that the US would defeat Japan.  So it is with the …

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