Summary: Finally the AI revolution and the coming great extinction of jobs has become visible to almost everyone. Only its timing remains unknown. New research shows experts' forecasts of AI's growing skills, valuable information that will help us prepare. Let's use it! "When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts." By Katja Grace … Continue reading A Timeline for the Extinction of Jobs by Machines
Summary: Artificial intelligence has arrived. The mid-twentieth century horse apocalypse shows us what it might do to employment. It is history's rebuttal to the pollyannas about tech. This is a follow-up to yesterday's post -- Films show us how smart machines will reshape the world. “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short … Continue reading Lessons for us about AI from the horse apocalypse
Summary: Here is a milestone economics paper, showing that the new wave of automation is already a net destroyer of jobs. The next industrial revolution has begun, and the effects will accelerate from here. We have to start thinking about ways to divide the new wealth it produces -- and handle the massive unemployment. "On … Continue reading The new industrial revolution has begun. Research shows more robots = fewer jobs
Summary: The new industrial revolution will have its greatest effect on industries that have large imbalances. Like retail, after decades of overbuilding stores. Lots of jobs will be destroyed. Watch closely, other industries will be hit with similar shocks. Hayley Petersen at Business Insider points to the next wave of the industrial revolution: "The retail apocalypse … Continue reading The new industrial revolution hits retail: prepare for mass firings.
Summary: Economists and financial experts are baffled by events because their minds know only the past and so do not see the new industrial revolution at work, slowly in its early days. Look at the retail sector. What explains unusually high corporate profits, rapid growth in sales -- along with slow growth in jobs and … Continue reading Look at the retail sector and see the power of the new industrial revolution