Summary: The economy is slowing. We are probably not in a recession, let alone beginning the end times depression doomsters have so often predicted. On the other hand, continued slowing seems likely, and a little more and we will have a recession. Let’s look at some key indicators. {First of two posts today.} Contents Manufacturing; …
Hold the hysteria. The US economy is OK, so far. Read More »
Summary: When will the next recession arrive? Economists, like most professionals, sell certainty. They assure us that data has meaning and can be understood. Sadly that’s reliably true only during trends, so economists usually miss inflection points. And a new era began ~2000, bringing new dynamics and normals, making the search for inflection points especially …
Summary: Every day brings new strangeness in the news. It’s easy to become disoriented (I am). The weirdness is a signal telling us that we’ve left the post-WWII era and begun the transition to a new world. Here we discuss three areas of oddness — and how to cope. {1st of 2 posts today.} Content …
Embrace the weird news. It signals the transition to a new world. Read More »
Summary The global financial situation is complex and wreathed in fog, but at least two things are clear. The financial crisis consists of fore-shocks before the main event. A new geopolitical order will mark the solution of this crisis; it lies far in the distance. This post examines the grim details of item #1. A loss of …
A look at the next phase of the crisis, as it hits the real economy Read More »
