A guide to the weird numbers that run our world, describing financial bubbles & climate change.

Summary: Two of our greatest challenges in the 21st century are climate change and management of economic crises. They're similar in that their mathematics are unlike that of the normal life -- the routine world of averages, variances, and bell-curve distributions. These phenomena take us deep into the mysteries of science. Before we can predict … Continue reading A guide to the weird numbers that run our world, describing financial bubbles & climate change.

Expect little or nothing from meetings like the G20 – or the Obama Administration

Summary:  Two bright lights shine amidst the torrent of bad economic news.  First the G20 meeting.  Second, President-Elect Obama's new team at the Treasury Department.  I suggest that we avoid disappointment by expecting little from either.  We are far "off the map", with little in history or economic theory to guide us.  Only time and … Continue reading Expect little or nothing from meetings like the G20 – or the Obama Administration

Causes of the financial crisis (no, its not the usual list)

Summary:  Much of the analysis of this great crisis -- now clearly the worst since the 1930's -- focuses on minute, even trivial, aspects of the problem.  This is natural, as its sweep and magnitude dwarf anything seen during our lifetimes (for most of us, at least).  It has affected almost every business, kind of investment, … Continue reading Causes of the financial crisis (no, its not the usual list)