Look at immigration policy to see our government respond to its masters

Summary: Immigration has been one of the most fascinating issues in American politics, revealing the influence of our elites over not just the government but also the experts and media that guide public policy. A new report shows past trends — revealing hidden causes of our problems — and points to a new future for America.  {2nd of 2 posts today}

Immigrants as fraction of US population
Graph of US Census data, prepared by the Center for Immigration Studies, April 2015. See Census graphs here.

Using data from US Census reports, the Center for Immigration Studies reveals some powerful trends (see their report for sources and methodology) …

  • Total net immigration (the difference between the number coming and going) will increase steadily over the next 45 years, totaling 64 million.
  • Absent a change in current policy, the Census Bureau projects that in 2023 the nation’s immigrant population (legal and illegal) will reach 14.8% (51 million) of the total U.S. population — the highest share ever recorded in American history.
  • The bureau also projects that the immigrant population will grow nearly four times faster than the native-born population, reaching 15.8% (57 million) of the nation’s population in 2030, 17.1% (65 million) in 2040, and 18.8% (78 million) in 2060.
  • To place these numbers into historical context, as recently as 1990, immigrants were 7.9% (20 million) of the total U.S. population.
  • The nation’s total population will grow to 417 million by 2060 — 108 million more than in 2010. This increase is roughly equivalent to adding the combined populations of California, Texas, New York, Florida, and Massachusetts to the country.
  • The new projections indicate that, absent a change in immigration policy, immigrants who will arrive in the future plus their descendants will account for roughly three-fourths of future U.S. population increase.

What effect will this have on America?

“{this body of excess workers} forms a disposable industrial reserve army …  a mass of human material always ready for exploitation.”
— Marx’s Das Kapital, expanding upon Friedrich Engels’ insight. They got a few things right.

A four-fold increase in immigrants as a fraction of the total population creates a severe shock to America, even when occurring over 90 years. That would take us beyond the point at which massive popular opposition forced “closing the door” in the early 20th century: the Immigration Act of 1917, the Emergency Quota Act (1921), and the Immigration Act of 1924. FDR reduced immigration to trickle during the Great Depression.

With the supply of cheap labor restricted, the foundation for a large middle class was laid. Unions were able to gain traction and wages began the long rise. Of course corporations immediately began to undermine these accomplishments. By 1970 their efforts began to bear fruit: unions were weakening, immigrants began to grow as a fraction of the population, and wages stagnated. By 1990 unions were crushed, immigrants flooded in with few limitations, and real wages for the unskilled plummeted.  Supply rising faster than demand.

We can expect more of all three trends as the 1% continues to gain power.

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Immigration as a reverse election: our leaders get a new people

Summary:  This campaign season has seen many demands for political change.  Our elites are responding, but perhaps not in the ways most people want.  Large-scale immigration over decades will greatly change America.  Given our high degree of inequality of wealth and income plus our low degree of social mobility, an underclass might result.  Given that many of them will be from Latin American societies, a client-patron system is a likely result in our southern and south-western States (at the very least).

 

To better understand the impact on America, I strongly recommend reading these two papers by Fredo Arias-King.  Now a businessman in Mexico City, he served as an aide in relations with the US to the Vicente Fox presidential campaign and the National Action Party of Mexico. A Harvard MBA and MA in Russian Studies, he is also the founding editor of the U.S.-Russian academic quarterly Demokratizatsiya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization.

  1. Politics by Other Means – The ‘Why’ of Immigration to the United States“, Fredo Arias-King, Center for Immigration Studies, December 2003
  2. Immigration and Usurpation — Elites, Power, and the People’s Will“, Fredo Arias-King, Center for Immigration Studies, July 2006.

Chapter II in this series contained excerpts from “Politics by Other Means.”  This chapter looks at “Immigration and Usurpation.”  It is just an introduction to this important work, which I strongly recommend reading in full. Excerpt:

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America’s elites reluctantly impose a client-patron system

Summary:  This campaign season has seen many demands for political change.  Our elites are responding, but perhaps not in the ways most people want.  Large-scale immigration over decades will greatly change America.  Given our high degree of inequality of wealth and income plus our low degree of social mobility, an underclass might result.  Given that many of them will be from Latin American societies, a client-patron system is a likely result in our southern and south-western States (at the very least).

This series consists of the following posts; this is the second in the series.

  1. Description of client-patron political systems
  2. Why immigration benefits America’s political elites
  3. The padrón system in America

2.  Why immigration benefits America’s political elites

To varying degrees a client-patron political systems has long existed in the southwest, as described in this article from The Economist (27 May 2004):

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