One of the four scenarios of our future given in the IPCC's AR5 (2013) is the basis for almost all the disturbing and often apocalyptic forecasts of future climate: RCP8.5. Climate scientists often describe it as the "business as usual scenario". Scientists, activists, and journalists use horrific forecasts based on RCP8.5 as a core argument … Continue reading The good news undercutting most forecasts of a climate disaster
Summary: Polar bears and pacific atolls (flooded by rising seas) are the poster children for climate change. Oddly, both are weak examples. Previous posts discussed polar bears. Here Judith Curry (Prof Atmospheric Science, GA Inst Tech) discusses the effect of rising sea levels on coral atolls. Kiribati crisis: the blame game Small atoll islands may … Continue reading Assigning blame for the flooding of Pacific atolls
Summary: Every field of science has frontiers. Journalists and activists prefer to show us answers (sometimes guesses), and hide the questions which drive science (and produce much of its excitement). Some are generated by the reigning paradigm, which focuses scientists' work on key issues. Scientists challenging the paradigm ask different questions, ones often considered irrelevant, … Continue reading Touring the frontiers of climate science, the exciting parts of science
Summary: Both sides of the public debate about climate change long ago abandoned the physical sciences. So we turn to the social scientists to understand what's happening. This article by climate scientist Judith Curry examines how the two fields intersect in the climate wars. (1st of 2 posts today.) The demand for certainty is one … Continue reading Climate activists’ last play: attempting to start an “availability cascade.”
Summary: The pause in temperatures since roughly 2000 has become the hot topic in both climate science and climate politics. While scientists study its causes and estimate its duration, activists on both sides use it to work their tribes. On the Left they deny its existence, ignoring or misrepresenting the many papers about it. On … Continue reading Will a return of rising temperatures validate the IPCC’s climate models?