computer models

Experts now run the world using their theories. What if they fail, and we lose confidence in them?

Summary: The first few decades of the 21st century appear to be dominated by experts steering public policy using their theories. The rest of the century might be dominated by the effects of their success — or failure. . So far America in the 21st century has driven by theories, in a way seldom seen …

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About models, increasingly often the lens through which we see the world

Here is one of Paul Krugman’s many brilliant essays.  It’s one with broad applicability today, as we grow increasingly dependent on mathematical models.  Such as science, public health, banking, and public finance.  Yet both practitioners and laypeople too-seldom understand their strengths and weaknesses. A note about Krugman One of the saddest aspects of the comments on the …

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A reply to comments on FM site about Global Warming

The pro-anthropgenic global warming comments on the FM site (and emails to me) are so similar that a generic reply will save everybody time and effort.  This post examines 7 8 common elements.  These are general statements.  They do not apply to every individual comment on the FM site or to material elsewhere (in any medium). Pro-AGW comments often display …

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Two valuable perspectives on global warming

Here are two posts providing valuable perspectives about the global climate debate, understandable even to non-scientists. I.  Data secrecy and the battle to allow replication of studies “Is Briffa Finally Cornered?“, Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, 30 July 2008 — Excerpt: In 2000, Keith Briffa, lead author of the millennial section of AR4, published his own versions of …

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