Do we get deflation or inflation? Today we look at the darker scenario.

Summary: One example of our inability to see the world through our ideological blinders is the obsession with inflation (coming real soon, so we've been told for 3 years) while deflation bangs on the door. We must learn to see better. Fortunately the people running the economy see more clearly (despite the mockery and insults … Continue reading Do we get deflation or inflation? Today we look at the darker scenario.

Are we following Japan into an era of slow growth, even stagnation?

Summary: Understanding events requires not just see what's happening today and guessing about the future, but also grading past expectations vs the actuals. Otherwise we live in the now, like cats, with little ability to shape our world. This is one way, perhaps the best way, to evaluate experts in fields other than our own. … Continue reading Are we following Japan into an era of slow growth, even stagnation?

Conservatives were correct: we have record-breaking inflation! What’s next?

Summary: Today we look at inflation, past and present. It tells much about who to trust for economic analysis, the current state of the US economy, and what we can expect in the future. . Contents Introduction The inflation picture Implications Why has inflation fallen since 2011? Others see the rise in real rates For … Continue reading Conservatives were correct: we have record-breaking inflation! What’s next?

What are the limitations of the Fed’s power? It’s neither impotent nor omnipotent!

Summary:  Although one of the most power agencies of the US government, obsessively discussed in the financial news, it remains one of the least well understood. Here we examine the limitations on its power.  Readers can decide for themselves if these limitations are too tight, or too loose. Next in a series about Central Banks, … Continue reading What are the limitations of the Fed’s power? It’s neither impotent nor omnipotent!

Two regions diverging, tearing the world apart. Birth pangs for a new geopolitical order.

Summary:  The emerging  nations are overheating, many of them suffering from a too-loose monetary policy transmitted from the US by their currency pegs to the US dollar.  Many of the developed nations are in the grips of deflationary forces.  This gap between the two worlds results from the now dysfunctional post-WWII global geopolitical regime.  The almost inevitable opposite … Continue reading Two regions diverging, tearing the world apart. Birth pangs for a new geopolitical order.