See the mystery of US GDP, and understand ourselves better

Evolution of estimates of US GDP for Q1 2015

Summary: It's the simple things that provide a mirror in which we can see ourselves, and the roots of America's problems. Such as this graph showing estimates of US GDP for Q1 2015 -- getting more accurate with each revision. This graph shows estimates of GDP for Q1 2015 made by the Bureau of Economic … Continue reading See the mystery of US GDP, and understand ourselves better

To understand the jobs report, see the state of the economy

Summary: The economy is slowing -- slowly. September's weak employment growth fits in this picture.  To see how, look at the current state of the economy -- the essential context necessary to make sense of the jobs number. Equally important, this also shows why we are so poorly informed about the economy.  For the scoop … Continue reading To understand the jobs report, see the state of the economy

What you haven’t been told about the July jobs report

Summary:  Another jobs report, more clickbait headlines about the monthly noise. Here's a look beneath the glitz to the important news. The US economy continues slow steady growth, with continued signs of slowing. Also, 47% of new jobs went to foreign-born workers during the past year. Important matters. Too bad neither the candidates, journalists, or … Continue reading What you haven’t been told about the July jobs report

May’s job report shows the beginning of the end for the recovery

Summary: First, the good news: the May number was awful but probably noise. Then the bad news: job growth is slowing fast. It's the among last economic metrics to roll over, suggesting that we're sliding to a recession somewhere ahead of us. But the US is not a "Starbucks Economy"; real wage growth is normal. … Continue reading May’s job report shows the beginning of the end for the recovery

Debunking the happy headlines about job growth

Summary: The news overflows with chaff about the economy. It's great! It's a recession! Neither is true. Since the 2009 trough we have had growth -- but unusually slow growth. Here we look at one measure of growth: jobs, going in slow clear steps from the wonderful headline news to the grimmer reality. The headlines … Continue reading Debunking the happy headlines about job growth