A recession is certain. Unless the epidemic breaks soon, a depression seems likely. Lessons from history tell us how to fight it. But much of our experience is inappropriate and we will have to improvise. Here is the brief.
Summary: It’s time to prepare for a possible recession in 2016. The manufacturing slump continues to deepen. A toxic combo: high inventories in November and weak retail sales in December. In February this expansion will tie for the 3rd longest expansion. {2nd of 2 posts today.} The Atlanta Fed’s GDPnow model just lowered its est …
The Government Has A Clip Full Of Ammo To Fight The Next Recession Read More »
Summary: The economic data continues to darken. Let’s review the situation — updating the recession watch — and guessing what might be the government’s response to a recession. It’s an era of new normals, so we should expect steps that would have been considered incredible or even mad a decade or two ago. {1st of …
Updating the recession watch; & what might the government do to fight a slowdown? Read More »
Summary: Today began the next phase of the great monetary experiment, the collision of Central Bankers’ bold promises with reality. History suggests skepticism about the odds of CB’s success (e.g., see the many unbreakable currency pegs and unions which broke). Today the Swiss National Bank folded its cards. Here we discuss the significance of this …
Summary: Let’s again look at the data about the US economy (we cannot directly see it, of course), both the recent past (dimly seen) and the immediate future (looming ahead in the darkness). Slower growth than usual since WWII, with higher risks and more unknowns. Just as I’ve reported for the past four years. (2nd …
What does the data tell us about the US economy in 2015? Read More »
