This series of articles speculations about our future based on history and the almost inevitable re-balancing of global economy (i.e., end of unconstrained borrowing by US). The elections are only three eight months away, perhaps our last chance to influence these developments. I. This is a government failure on two levels, despite many warnings from major institutions that the US … Continue reading What will America look like after this recession?
This analysis is far from the consensus viewpoint. Unlike the consensus view, however, this has the advantage of accurately predicting the events of the past year. The deleveraging of the US economy is putting "torque" on the US financial system. This is a process which cannot be stopped prior to completion, although the government will … Continue reading The US economy at Defcon 2
The daily newspapers display events as string of beads. Discrete, unrelated. That masks the key to understanding what is happening: the systemic drivers at work. This is in my opinion not a series of isolated events or even a cyclical downturn. We are experiencing a change in the fundamental structure of the global economic regime. You … Continue reading Framing current events about the global economic and geopolitical system
Summary: The first in a long series of posts about one of our most serious problems, one that results from other and deeper problems -- which makes it difficult to fix. Links to other chapters in the series appear at the end. Something is wrong with America, rendering our society incapable of connecting effectively to reality. The late USAF Colonel John … Continue reading Diagnosing the Eagle: the housing bust
The US third quarter GDP report told us that inflation was at .8% -- a multi decade low. Very good news, if a bit odd given rising prices for things like energy and food. This reignited the debate about the government's calculation of CPI. Here are a few thoughts. Many years ago I called the … Continue reading Is the US Government deliberately underestimating inflation?