Summary: How might the various jihadest organizations evolve during the next decade? They might follow the same path as emerging industries in capitalist economies, driven by the same forces of competition to to grow and innovate so that the best grow far larger than anyone imagined possible at their beginnings. We cannot imagine the details, … Continue reading Jihadists will prosper using the methods of America’s entrepreneurs.
Future historians will be after to follow our efforts in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars relying only on the works of David Kilcullen, Special Advisor for Counterinsurgency to the Secretary of State, officer in the Australian Army, anthropologist, top expert in counter-insurgency. (See below for a bio). His writing, along with that of a small number of … Continue reading Another “must-read” presentation by Kilcullen about COIN
Innovation of new forms of society and technology. It is the key to our progress. It has allowed us to evolve from naked hunter-gatherers to the dominant species on this planet. This process is slow, normally taking hundreds or even thousands of years. But occasionally evolution leaps forward. ** Many people look to the future … Continue reading Let us light a candle while we walk, lest we fear what lies ahead
Summary: This is chapter two in a series of articles about grand strategy in our era, when 4GW has become the dominate form of war. This post shows the difficulty of distinguishing strong from weak in 4GW, and that choosing a wrong grand strategy can be terminal for a state. It could easily prove fatal for … Continue reading The Fate of Israel
What progress has the Coalition made in Iraq? Great progress, in many important areas. With our western passion for numbers, we have measured many aspects of our construction programs. However the significance of these accomplishments seems more difficult to determine. Some things we can say with confidence, if not precision. See links at the bottom … Continue reading Scorecard #3: the Coalition’s Progress in Iraq