Summary: America has played a special role in the post-WWII era, repeatedly unleashing horrors on the world. We started the nuclear arms race by bombing Japan, staged the first cyberattack on Iran (we now live in fear of the next being on us), and now we're flooding the world with armed drones. Here Stratfor explains … Continue reading Stratfor: The Unstoppable Spread of Armed Drones
Summary: 2014 was to be the year the US economy reached "escape velocity" from the slow 2.2% GDP growth since the crash. So far, as repeatedly predicted here, that has not happened. What might the second half of 2014 hold for us? The long-awaited acceleration, or more trend growth, or (what few economists expect) further slowing? … Continue reading Economists forecast a boom soon. The numbers show slowing. Who is right?
Here is a question asked on the FM website this week (some of these were assertions, which I've rephrased at questions): does the US still manufacture anything? Rephrased, is US manufacturing prospering or dying? Maclaren writes about the decline of US manufacturing here. Is US manufacturing prospering or dying? See the BLS tables here for … Continue reading Q&A on the FM website
My framework for analysis of current economic events sees this as the end of the post-WWII geopolitical and economic regime. Like walking through a forest and seeing only trees, it is difficult to grasp the magnitude of these events. Long-term graphs are needed, and easily show that current events reflect the ending of a long … Continue reading Can you see the signs of spring in the coming of winter? A note about the recession.