financial bubble

Understanding the new world shown us by Larry Summers

Summary: A weakness of my posts is that they don’t adequately convey the wonders of our time, the extraordinary events, the uncertainty of future outcomes.  Today I attempt to show the amazing nature of our new economy, as highlighted in last weeks’ speech by Larry Summers. We have entered a new world, for ill or …

Understanding the new world shown us by Larry Summers Read More »

Larry Summers gives us the bad news. Worse, the only solution is more of the same.

Summary: Larry Summers speech last week was, IMO, a pivotal moment. It forced economists to look at the US from a new perspective, considering things that had been heretical. The previous post, Are we following Japan into an era of slow growth, even stagnation? sketched out his bold speech. Today we look at the text, with …

Larry Summers gives us the bad news. Worse, the only solution is more of the same. Read More »

Will 21st Century USA have a surprise boom, as did the 19th Century UK?

Summary:  Today we have an essay by Andrew Odlyzko, one of the top polymaths and futurists writing today. He reminds us of the difficulty in accurately predicting the future, and the peril of relying on past successes to solve our problems. The industrial revolution relieved the UK’s crushing debt in the 19th century. As the post-WW2 …

Will 21st Century USA have a surprise boom, as did the 19th Century UK? Read More »

About China’s real estate bubble: fact and fiction

Summary: Facing a new powerful rival presents a hegemon with choices. We can improve our game, reform, revitalize to meet the challenge. Or take refuge in fantasy, ignoring our weaknesses and exaggerating those of our rival. America has chosen door #2. Here we peer through the propaganda fog, seeking a better perspective on one aspect …

About China’s real estate bubble: fact and fiction Read More »