See the mystery of US GDP, and understand ourselves better

Evolution of estimates of US GDP for Q1 2015

Summary: It's the simple things that provide a mirror in which we can see ourselves, and the roots of America's problems. Such as this graph showing estimates of US GDP for Q1 2015 -- getting more accurate with each revision. This graph shows estimates of GDP for Q1 2015 made by the Bureau of Economic … Continue reading See the mystery of US GDP, and understand ourselves better

The secret but vital to know number in today’s economic news

Summary: Economists get excited about aggregate GDP (today's hot economic news dot). People -- you, me, our neighbors -- care about per capita GDP. GDP that grows along with the population does nothing for our standard of living, (and less than nothing if the 1% cream off most of it). It is important to us, … Continue reading The secret but vital to know number in today’s economic news

The ugly news about the US economy, unmentioned in Campaign 2016

Summary: Friday's news about Q2 confirmed that America is mired in secular stagnation. Here is the worse news, unmentioned in the newspapers. It should electrify Campaign 2016, giving it real meaning -- beyond the circus of personalities. That will happen only if you see what is happening and act. If each of us as individuals … Continue reading The ugly news about the US economy, unmentioned in Campaign 2016

The miracle of growth in the US economy

Summary: Let's look at the four key measures of growth for the US economy. They show the big news about this economic cycle: six years of amazing stable and slow US growth, shrugging off repeated shocks. The latest being the apocalypse of Brexit, so confidently predicted before the UK vote. This has surprised almost everybody, … Continue reading The miracle of growth in the US economy

The mystery of the US economy at stall speed

Summary: Since 2012 the idea of a "stall speed" to the economy played a prominent role the almost incessant predictions of an imminent recession. Since then the US has cruised at or below stall speed without a downturn. This is rich with lessons for us -- about the danger of believing untested theories, about overconfident … Continue reading The mystery of the US economy at stall speed