Why New Home Construction Is Slow, And Will Remain So For A Long Time

Summary: September housing starts were weak, as they have been since the crash. Their failure to recover has been a surprising and large drag on this economic cycle. Demographic change and slow GDP prevent a housing recovery. On the other hand, housing busts create recessions; this slow expansion (without a boom) is more sustainable -- … Continue reading Why New Home Construction Is Slow, And Will Remain So For A Long Time

Why new home sales are slow, and will remain so for a long time

Summary: The refusal of housing construction to join the boom has baffled economists and investment experts. Demographic change explains much of this puzzle, and suggests that housing construction -- a major driver of the post-WWII boom -- will remain in the doldrums for several more decades. Boom and bust of the housing market Large file; … Continue reading Why new home sales are slow, and will remain so for a long time

Recession Watch: the economic indicators that show what’s coming

Summary: As the expansion ages and growth slows, we should begin to watch for signs that the next recession approaches. Here are some tips for doing so without spending much time at it -- avoiding the complacency of Wall Street's economists and the exaggerated darkness of the popular permabears (such as Zero Hedge). {2nd of … Continue reading Recession Watch: the economic indicators that show what’s coming

Has the Fed blown another housing bubble?

Summary:  Critics and fans alike have speculated about the side-effects of ZIRP and QE (zero-interest rate policy, quantitative easing) run since 2008. One likely effect is blowing asset price bubbles. Today we have an article by Mark Hanson, an expert who believes a new RE bubble has been blown. If so, the effects of it … Continue reading Has the Fed blown another housing bubble?

Deflating the housing bubble – an update

Summary:  Since the first post here about the housing crisis in December 2007, it's been described here as not just a central piece of the economic weakness but a illustration of our political dysfunctionality -- our inability to use a crisis to identify structural weaknesses and generate the pressure for their reform. Here's an update … Continue reading Deflating the housing bubble – an update