housing

Why New Home Construction Is Slow, And Will Remain So For A Long Time

Summary: September housing starts were weak, as they have been since the crash. Their failure to recover has been a surprising and large drag on this economic cycle. Demographic change and slow GDP prevent a housing recovery. On the other hand, housing busts create recessions; this slow expansion (without a boom) is more sustainable — …

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Why new home sales are slow, and will remain so for a long time

Summary: The refusal of housing construction to join the boom has baffled economists and investment experts. Demographic change explains much of this puzzle, and suggests that housing construction — a major driver of the post-WWII boom — will remain in the doldrums for several more decades. Boom and bust of the housing market Large file; …

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Recession Watch: the economic indicators that show what’s coming

Summary: As the expansion ages and growth slows, we should begin to watch for signs that the next recession approaches. Here are some tips for doing so without spending much time at it — avoiding the complacency of Wall Street’s economists and the exaggerated darkness of the popular permabears (such as Zero Hedge). {2nd of …

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Deflating the housing bubble – an update

Summary:  Since the first post here about the housing crisis in December 2007, it’s been described here as not just a central piece of the economic weakness but a illustration of our political dysfunctionality — our inability to use a crisis to identify structural weaknesses and generate the pressure for their reform. Here’s an update …

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