if we can keep it Archives - Fabius Maximus website

What Tom Barnett should have told Congress about America’s 21st century Navy

By Larry Kummer, Editor / 22 Comments / 3 April 2009 30 December 2016

Thomas Barnett is one of our foremost geopolitical visionaries, so his presentations are always worth attention. His latest is insightful and elegantly expressed, as always. However, I have a few suggestions — minor changes to make it better suit the current situation and needs of America. (I have a draft post in the pipeline describing the implication of the revised …

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A solution to 4GW – the introduction

By Larry Kummer, Editor / 28 Comments / 12 March 2008 23 November 2014

We now have an adequate basis upon which to develop a solution for 4GW (at least, a “Mark I” version). Three recent books provide the last missing pieces of this puzzle: If We Can Keep It by Chet Richards (aka IWCKI) Brave New War by John Robb (BNW) The Changing Face of War by Martin van Creveld None …

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Theories about 4GW are not yet like the Laws of Thermodynamics

By Larry Kummer, Editor / 12 Comments / 6 March 2008 24 October 2010

One of the baleful influences on the 4GW analysis is the science of Psychohistory developed by Hari Seldon, capable of accurately predicting history (as described in the Foundation novels of Isaac Asimov). Social science “laws” in the real world are just heuristics, generalities not to be confused with the Laws of Thermodynamics. This is especially true in military theory. For example, Clausewitz’s …

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ABCDs for today: About Blitzkrieg, COIN, and Diplomacy

By Larry Kummer, Editor / 20 Comments / 21 February 2008 2 July 2010

Here and here I discussed our tactical retreat in Anbar Province of Iraq. Dan Tdaxp raises an interesting and valuable question (here) about this: what does “retreat” mean in 4GW? The previous generations of war occured in physical space. We plot their course on maps, using lines and arrows. A 3GW “retreat” means movement away from geographic objectives. Can we …

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The Constitution: wonderful, if we can keep it

By Larry Kummer, Editor / 7 Comments / 15 February 2008 7 January 2018

Many reviews of books about public policy give the impression that the reviewer went directly to the last chapter, which describes the author’s recommendations. Going to the good stuff works when reading Penthouse, but not Shakespeare (Hamlet: everyone dies, so it is a tragedy). The path to understanding the recommendations is a book’s content. The destination may be wonderful, …

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