Summary: Here is the best status report I've seen about Trump's problems, and the dynamics that will either keep him in play -- or put VP Pence in the Oval Office. By now it is obvious that Trump is lost in the job, with his administration fracturing around him. Here presidential biographer Elizabeth Drew reviews … Continue reading Status report on Trump: a president in peril
Summary: Here is a summary of the latest sensational Trump fiasco. But more important, here is why the media chatter misses its significance. No matter how significant (or insignificant) the intel given to Russia, it brings the Republicans in Congress one step closer to impeaching him to save the GOP. However tactical their reasons for … Continue reading What Trump told Russia, why it matters, and why journalists ignore the smartest man in Washington
Summary: President Trump might spark a change in our politics both unexpected and (as it will seem afterwards) inevitable, making our 18th century constitutional regime more similar to modern parliamentary systems. If he continues to act wildly and weirdly, the Republicans in Congress might impeach and remove him -- putting the solidly far-Right Mike Pence … Continue reading The GOP might impeach Trump, changing our politics forever – for the better
Summary: We can learn lost lessons about our government from the debt crisis. Much of what's said in the media is wrong, chaff thrown to confuse us. Here are some simple facts about the crisis. Both sides are right. If they cannot agree, there is a simple but perilous solution. It has worked before and … Continue reading About the crisis: The GOP is right. So is Obama. That’s why it’s a crisis.
Also, Introducing the New Kingmaker in American Politics! What comes next in Iraq? Here are some straight-line extrapolations. Let's move beyond the obvious good bets: collapse of the current government structure in Iraq, civil war, and continued slow erosion of US popular support. All these were discussed at length in my November 30 Forecasts. What's … Continue reading Forecasts for the American Expedition to Iraq – the Sequel