Summary: Stratfor looks at the videos of ISIS using drones and discusses their potential applications of this new weapon. Will we see ISIS drones in the skies of America? Beyond the Buzz: Assessing the Terrorist Drone Threat By Scott Stewart at Stratfor, 9 February 2017. The Islamic State is taking to the skies as the fight … Continue reading Stratfor looks at the next phase of terrorism: ISIS drones
Summary: Remember the hysteria in 2014-15 about the Islamic State? Our geopolitical experts debated whether they would be stopped at Cairo, Paris, or Chicago. Fast forward to today, where Stratfor predicts the rapid decay of ISIS. But even after it fades to irrelevance, a Jihad 3.0 will arise. The Islamic State in 2017: Rotting From … Continue reading Stratfor Predicts that the Islamic State Will Rot From Within
Summary: Our war with ISIS is almost invisible to Americans. Only lightly reported by the press, visible mostly in the domestic terrorism it inspires. Even less visible is our cyberwar with ISIS. One of the most active fronts of the war, it is a harbinger of future conflicts. Here Emilio Iasiello briefs us on the … Continue reading U.S. Cyber Command Attacks ISIS. Slow Progress. Few Results.
Summary: Jeremy Harding at the LRB looks at the next big step by jihadists, and the amazing oddity of the West's response. Introduction Modern jihad has gone through several phases, each stronger and more virulent than the predecessor. First came Afghanistan's Mujahideen, who burned out in internecine conflict (defeated by the Tailiban). Al Qaeda … Continue reading The third wave of Jihad begins. We will soon see its power.
Summary: Insurgencies can't be fought like conventional wars. Patton's Third Army didn't need to know what motivated the NAZIs. The nations of the Middle East cannot defeat ISIS without understanding it, while America's ignorant efforts (invading, occupying, bombing, and assassinations) have helped destabilize the region. But academics have begun to provide answers, puzzling though they … Continue reading A new study explains why people join ISIS (with unexpected answers)
Summary: The fall of Fallujah and the Ramadan attacks mark a decisive retreat of the jihadist (led by ISIS) from Mao's Phase 3 operations (holding areas) back to Phase 2 (attacks on the government, terrorism). Last week Stratfor looked at Fallujah; here is their analysis of the Ramadan attacks. Eventually it will get crushed as … Continue reading Stratfor: What the Ramadan Attacks Reveal About ISIS
Summary: Iraq forces (army & militia) have retaken Fallujah, another step by Jihad 2.0 (ISIS) towards its inevitable end. Here Stratfor describes why ISIS loses, along with the obligatory hopes that this begins the reunification of the Sunni Arab regions back into Iraq (hopes for a return of the Kurds are long gone). Read this … Continue reading Stratfor: Why ISIS lost Fallujah. What will jihad 3.0 look like?