Summary: Martin van Creveld explains our dance with North Korea, fierce talk but little action, seeing what our journalists and geopolitical experts don't. "The atomic bomb is the Second Coming in Wrath." --- Winston Churchill, on hearing about the Trinity test. From Harvey H. Bundy's "Remembered Words" in The Atlantic, March 1957. "And Pray, Sir, … Continue reading Martin van Creveld explains our phony war with North Korea
Summary: Brexit and Trump's election were followed by hysterical predictions of doom by experts, helping journalists manufacture exciting news for their apathetic audiences. Italy's citizens defied their centrist technocratic leaders, producing yet another round of ominous forecasts. For those who like their news straight and sober, here is an analysis of Italy's situation by Stratfor. … Continue reading Stratfor: Italy After the Referendum. What comes next?
Summary: The debt supercycle is a global phenomenon, with Italy one of the most afflicted nations. High levels of debt plus slow growth makes a toxic combination. Here Stratfor examines the numbers and their implications. “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” — Herbert Stein’s Law (US economist, 1916-1999). Italy's Shaky Financial Future … Continue reading Stratfor: Italy’s Shaky Financial Future
Summary: The strong often believe that the weak have no choice but to stay in the game (however rigged) and accept whatever cards they're dealt. While logical, the weak often have the ability to turn the tables. So it is with creditor nations, who often confuse the power of loans with that of tanks -- … Continue reading Will Italy stay in the Euro-zone?
Summary: The endgame for Europe (in its current form) probably has started. Like birth, nobody what comes next. Will the process be easy or difficult? Fast or slow? Produce an angel or monster? Here we make some guesses. Pay attention, as Europe's travails mirror those to come for the world. Contents The present: rising stress … Continue reading Europe begins its endgame. Watch and learn, for Europe’s problems are the world’s.