lawrence summers

See the ugly cost of the next big flu pandemic. We can do more to prepare.

By / 13 Comments / 3 February 2020

Summary: Epidemics of Ebola and Zika remind us of a danger too long ignored in favor of more glamorous model-based threats like global warming and fear-based nightmare jihadis with WMDs. Recurring epidemics are facts of history. Here 3 economists, including Larry Summers, look at the likely consequences of another influenza epidemic (like that of 1918, …

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The big question for the world: is China growing, slowing, or in recession?

By / 6 Comments / 29 August 2015

Summary: China is both the key driver of the world economy and the least well known of the major nations. With unreliable economic statistics, a rapidly evolving economy that defies easy analysis, and deep corruption, it defies analysis. But its growth or recession might determine the course of the world economy during the next decade. …

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Understanding the new world shown us by Larry Summers

By / 27 Comments / 20 February 2015

Summary: A weakness of my posts is that they don’t adequately convey the wonders of our time, the extraordinary events, the uncertainty of future outcomes.  Today I attempt to show the amazing nature of our new economy, as highlighted in last weeks’ speech by Larry Summers. We have entered a new world, for ill or …

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Larry Summers gives us the bad news. Worse, the only solution is more of the same.

By / 31 Comments / 9 May 2016

Summary: Larry Summers speech last week was, IMO, a pivotal moment. It forced economists to look at the US from a new perspective, considering things that had been heretical. The previous post, Are we following Japan into an era of slow growth, even stagnation? sketched out his bold speech. Today we look at the text, with …

Larry Summers gives us the bad news. Worse, the only solution is more of the same. Read More »

Are we following Japan into an era of slow growth, even stagnation?

By / 31 Comments / 20 June 2016

Summary: Understanding events requires not just see what’s happening today and guessing about the future, but also grading past expectations vs the actuals. Otherwise we live in the now, like cats, with little ability to shape our world. This is one way, perhaps the best way, to evaluate experts in fields other than our own. …

Are we following Japan into an era of slow growth, even stagnation? Read More »

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