Summary: The economy is slowing — slowly. September’s weak employment growth fits in this picture. To see how, look at the current state of the economy — the essential context necessary to make sense of the jobs number. Equally important, this also shows why we are so poorly informed about the economy. For the scoop …
To understand the jobs report, see the state of the economy Read More »
Summary: As the expansion ages and growth slows, we should begin to watch for signs that the next recession approaches. Here are some tips for doing so without spending much time at it — avoiding the complacency of Wall Street’s economists and the exaggerated darkness of the popular permabears (such as Zero Hedge). {2nd of …
Recession Watch: the economic indicators that show what’s coming Read More »
A new era has begun for the US and global economy, trashing the simple rules of the post-WWII era. Instead of the business cycle (the “clock” analogy found in textbooks), we have secular stagnation interrupted by frequent bubbles alternating with bouts of debt deflation that are fought by massive government stimulus programs. Since we have …
Recession Watch: a turning Point in Unemployment Claims? Read More »
Summary: It’s been six years from the previous recession. We should be watching for the next downturn. Since the usual forecasting tools never worked well, and are probably even less reliable in this new century, what should we watch? I suggest looking at potential causes of the next recession. There are a few obvious candidates. …
Summary: As so many of us expect, the US stock market might (might!) have begun the big rollover. If so, how might that affect the US economy? If you rely on the news, you’ll be surprised. Here’s a brief note; I’ll write more about this next week. The decline of stock prices in China and …
