This site contains mostly analysis, with few specific predictions.  Here is one one:  August 2009 will mark the beginning of the end to our war in Afghanistan. The debate about the strategic foundation to the war has begun, and the advocates of ending the war have exposed its frail — even fraudulent — foundations. Also with …
The beginning of the end to our war in Afghanistan Read More »
Summary: The Iraq government has been unable to arrange for scheduled elections this Fall. While significant in itself, this is evidence of a larger and more important lesson going to the heart of out ability to successfully execute modern COIN theory as set forth in FM 3-24. “Iraq parliament fails to pass elections bill“, Los …
A larger lesson from the delayed elections in Iraq Read More »
 I love reading about our awesome new COIN tactics. Sophisticated info ops, winning hearts and minds of the locals — so unlike our Vietnam era tactics of intensive use of air power, sweeps (search and destroy or clear), and training popular front militia. So we turn to this week’s news stories to see COIN done right. I. …
 This looks like good news: U.S., Allies See Progress in Selling Al-Qaeda As an Enemy to the Muslim World“, Walter Pincus, Washington Post  (28 April 2008) — Excerpt: “More and more Muslim and Arab populations — [including] clerics and scholars — are questioning the value of al-Qaeda’s program,” Juan Carlos Zarate, deputy assistant to the …
One of the best “status reports” on the Iraq War:Â “The Price of the Surge“, Steven Simon, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2008 Free access is available for the next few weeks. The author is Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. From 1994 to 1999, he served on …
