Summary: One reason Americans observation-orientation-decision-action loop is broken: we love people to give us bad information. Even outright lies are acceptable, if interesting or flattery. As in the media trope "he was wrong, but made us think." Today's example is the late Matthew Simmons. Christopher Helman, a Bureau Chief for Forbes explains in "Matt Simmons, … Continue reading Exaggerations and false predictions are good; truth is bad – about peak oil research
Summary: Now that BP's third and fourth attempts appear to have failed (the "top kill" and "junk shots"), discussion turns to darker methods of sealing the Deepwater Horizon well. Most of our journalists and Internet experts get the story wrong. Often grossly so. But the truth is available, for people who exercise care when selecting their sources … Continue reading Let’s seal the Gulf oil well by using atomic weapons!
Summary: Coverage of the Deepwater Horizon has moved beyond exaggeration into outright lies, fed by the hysteria of special interest groups and the media. But the truth is out there. The truth is bad enough. It's unprecedented! See this compilation of "unprecedenteds". But it's not (see list of larger spills here). Even better are the way … Continue reading Science: “Gulf Spill Big But Not Enormous, Yet”
This post briefly reviews a new presentation by investment banker Matthew Simmons, author of Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy (2005). He is one of the best known of the experts warning about peak oil. IMO he is one of the best of them. As this analysis shows, that … Continue reading Poor peak oil research, more evidence of a serious problem with America’s vision
During the 1990's an increase in oil prices of $10 reduced growth of real GDP by approximately one-half percent. Hence the concern after 2001 as oil rose from $20 to $40, then panic as oil rose from $40 to $80. At $120, oil prices are up 6x from the 1990's average. Where is the global … Continue reading What does $120 oil mean for the global economy?