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A new study explains why people join ISIS (with unexpected answers)

By / 2 Comments / 17 July 2016

Summary: Insurgencies can’t be fought like conventional wars. Patton’s Third Army didn’t need to know what motivated the NAZIs. The nations of the Middle East cannot defeat ISIS without understanding it, while America’s ignorant efforts (invading, occupying, bombing, and assassinations) have helped destabilize the region. But academics have begun to provide answers, puzzling though they …

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Hard data from Harvard about police violence & race

By / 25 Comments / 7 December 2016

Summary: At last in the long debate about police violence we have an actual analysis (rather than the amateur tallies). Professor Fryer Jr. (economics, Harvard) looks at a sample of the data and discovers some surprising news. He gives some innovative suggests for practical police reforms (i.e., possible to implement). His conclusions are essential reading …

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See America’s income inequality grow during 1979-2011, a driver of Campaign 2016

By / 15 Comments / 11 July 2016

Summary: To understand this election we must see the accumulated stresses which produced the insurgencies in both parties. Rising income inequality — “the hollowing out” of the middle class and rise of the 1% — is probably the biggest, yet still poorly understood (until recently conservatives denied it). This great study by one of our …

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Fewer new superstar firms: another step towards secular stagnation for America

By / 2 Comments / 20 April 2016

Summary: Economists are studying the mysterious multi-decade slowing of the US economy. One bright spot was rapid job growth in a few rapidly-growing young firms. A new study shows that since 2000 both the number of start-up firms and the number of those with very rapid growth has been declining. It’s another step on the …

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NBER: rapidly rising household debt predicts recessions. See America’s future.

By / 14 Comments / 2 February 2016

Summary: Perhaps the most important frontier in microeconomics is the effect of debt on growth, especially private sector debt (government debt has different dynamics). Many economists have attempted to integrate debt levels into mainstream theory (e.g., Hyman Minsky). While so far unsuccessful, research has produced many useful insights. Here is a new study with a …

NBER: rapidly rising household debt predicts recessions. See America’s future. Read More »

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