During the 1990's an increase in oil prices of $10 reduced growth of real GDP by approximately one-half percent. Hence the concern after 2001 as oil rose from $20 to $40, then panic as oil rose from $40 to $80. At $120, oil prices are up 6x from the 1990's average. Where is the global … Continue reading What does $120 oil mean for the global economy?
Peak Oil as end of civilization is a hot meme. Its spread illustrates how ideas propagate though our society. "Why I hope the search for extraterrestrial life finds nothing", Tim Bostrom, Technology Review (May/June 2008) -- This is a long and subtle analysis of the Fermi Paradox. One section of the essay discusses end-time scenarios: The other possibility is that the Great … Continue reading Spreading the news: the end is nigh!
Summary: this brief analysis of Matt Savinar's Life After the Oil Crash. Are we doomed? Probably not. My title is, of course, fun but absurd. Peak oil is too vast a subject, the range of expert opinion too wide, for any blog post to pose as more than a introduction -- showing one perspective of … Continue reading Peak Oil Doomsters debunked, end of civilization called off
Summary: The world's slide towards Peak Oil continues, marked by much chattering but little research. The few well-funded research projects focus not on understanding the dynamics of Peak Oil, but on political objectives. The Oil Shockwave project nicely demonstrates this. Imagine what we might have learned if this money had been spent on actual research, … Continue reading The “Oil Shockwave” project: well-funded analysis of the obvious
Summary: Robert Hirsch describes another form of Peak Oil: political peaking. Perhaps the Middle Eastern nations can produce more oil to meet the world's growing thirst -- but will they? Is it in their interest to do so? Also, the focus of doomsters on shockwaves -- instantaneous and large production cuts -- ignores the more likely … Continue reading The most dangerous form of Peak Oil