probability

Nassim Nicholas Taleb looks at the risks threatening humanity

Summary: How to deal with risks dominates our headlines, usually driven by single-interest groups that see only their favorite threat. Statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s latest work offers a way to identify the most serious threats facing us, and determine how much we should spend to fight each of them. It has received much attention. Is …

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Perhaps the most useful thing you will read today…

“The risks of risk management“, Paul Wilmott, BBC, 5 December 2008 — Hat tip on this to Brad Delong.  Excerpt (reformatted): You are in the audience at a small, intimate theatre, watching a magic show. The magician hands a pack of cards to a random member of the audience, asks him to check that it …

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