Summary: It’s time to prepare for a possible recession in 2016. The manufacturing slump continues to deepen. A toxic combo: high inventories in November and weak retail sales in December. In February this expansion will tie for the 3rd longest expansion. {2nd of 2 posts today.} The Atlanta Fed’s GDPnow model just lowered its est …
The Government Has A Clip Full Of Ammo To Fight The Next Recession Read More »
Summary: Six years after the recession ended, we are due for another recession. Many experts say that the government is “out of bullets” to fight the next severe downturn. That’s quite false because 2008 marked the start of a new era in which our leaders manage the business cycles using strange and awesome tools. We’ll …
The Fed will use these power tools during the next big recession Read More »
Summary: I don’t believe I’ve successfully communicated to our readers the extraordinary nature of our times. We too often focus on the details, but ignore this essential aspect of our situation. Since the crash (perhaps starting even before) we’ve sailed beyond the edges of the known economic “space”. We can no longer even see the …
Look at the economy. Fight the illusion of normality. Feel the weirdness. Read More »
Summary: Prosperity, perhaps even survival, in the 21st century might require learning which experts we should listen to. In economics its a short list, if we limit it to people who have understood large aspects of the great recession and the aftermath. Richard Koo certainly deserves to make that short list. Here he tells us …
Richard Koo gives a “Post-QE forecast: sunny, cloudy, or stormy?” Read More »
Summary: A first step to understanding comes from appreciating the wonders before us. Recognition of extraordinary events that lie before us. Not unique events (those are seldom seen), but event of unusual magnitude. Old Faithful, not the usual steam kettle on the stove. Today we look at one such, one of the greatest experiments ever: …
Japan leads us into a new future, taking the next step in the great monetary experiment Read More »
