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James Bond is not just our hero, but the model for our geopolitical strategy

By / 58 Comments / 13 May 2015

I enjoyed Ian Fleming’s books about James Bond, and some of the movies too (esp. Casino Royale).  But should we base our geopolitical strategyon fielding teams of “00” agents (and special operators) to kill our enemies?  Will this make us safer, or make more likely what we most wish to avoid? Consider this: Many (most?) nations …

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All about Pirates!

By / 13 Comments / 13 September 2010

Summary:  Pirates are the latest craze to furrow brows in the geopolitical community, provoking much heavy breathing and laborious prose.  Here are some posts to sort through the noise. This is the first in a series; links to the other chapters appear at the end. Summary How big is the impact so far?  See  “Quick Math …

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Theories about 4GW are not yet like the Laws of Thermodynamics

By / 12 Comments / 24 October 2010

One of the baleful influences on the 4GW analysis is the science of Psychohistory developed by Hari Seldon, capable of accurately predicting history (as described in the Foundation novels of Isaac Asimov).  Social science “laws” in the real world are just heuristics, generalities not to be confused with the Laws of Thermodynamics.  This is especially true in military theory.  For example, Clausewitz’s …

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General's hat

The Core Competence of America’s Military Leaders

By / 4 Comments / 21 December 2018

As we enter the fifth year of our war in Iraq, it’s time to do a “rate the players” exercise — essential to understanding events and set our expectations. A core competence is a combination of complementary skills and knowledge bases embedded in a group or team that results in the ability to execute one …

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The Real Revolution in Military Affairs (it’s not what you think)

By / 8 Comments / 16 July 2015

Summary: one of the most important and least discussed changes in the nature of warfare is who does the fighting. Women and children acting as soldiers are not unknown in the past, but never with such a large and increasing role. Their participation changes the very nature of war, with effects today we can only …

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