revolution

The CIA’s forecast about the Iranian Revolution – and the revolution prediction tool

This is valuable material not just for students of history, but for those seeking useful tools to understand today’s rapidly changing world. (a)  “The Dionysian Rites of Henry Kissinger’s CIA and the Iranian Revolution of 2010“, Marla Singer and Geoffrey Batt, The Journal of Irreverent Attacks on Conventional Wisdom, Entrenched Dogma and Sacred Cows, January …

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A revolution is not a dinner party. Thoughts about the future of China

This is a follow-up to Will China collapse? (5 August 2008). Recent analysis: “Get ready for lower Chinese growth“, Michael Pettis, op-ed in the Financial Times, 29 July 2009  “The spend is nigh“, Economist, 30 July 2009 — “The second article in our series on global rebalancing asks whether China can reduce its trade surplus by consuming …

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Fixing America: the choices are elections, revolt, or passivity

My series about America has sparked much discussion, unusually intense (as it goes on the FM site).  How can we reform America?  This is the third in a series about this, perhaps the most important issue for our generation of Americans. My opinion is simple (perhaps simplistic) We are in this together.  Reality/nature/God enforces collectively …

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Fixing America: shall we choose elections, revolt, or passivity?

My series about America has sparked much discussion, unusually intense (as it goes on the FM site).  How can we reform America?  Elections, with more and wider citizen involvement?  Or has America become unreformable, our ruling elites too strong — so that revolt or passivity are the only practical options?  This is IMO the most important of …

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