Summary: Prosperity, perhaps even survival, in the 21st century might require learning which experts we should listen to. In economics its a short list, if we limit it to people who have understood large aspects of the great recession and the aftermath. Richard Koo certainly deserves to make that short list. Here he tells us … Continue reading Richard Koo gives a “Post-QE forecast: sunny, cloudy, or stormy?”
Summary: The first phase of the great monetary experiment was guaranteed pleasure. Whatever the results, monetary stimulus feels great. Then comes the difficult process of withdrawing the stimulus. "Tapering", as its called by economists (and, coincidentally, by heroin addicts). How much damage will be cause? How much pain? Today we have advice about what to … Continue reading What happens if the economy hits some rocks? Will the Fed stop the taper?
Summary: Quantitative easing is the easy cheap stimulus (unlike the politically difficult but effective fiscal action. Like heroin, it provides a lift with no ill effects. Slowly economists begin to realize that the cost of QE is not paid up front, but during withdrawal. Faced with the necessity and cost of tapering, last week the Fed wiffed. … Continue reading Two warnings about quantitative easing, the taper, and what comes next
Summary: We live in an age of wonders. We have technology that previous generations would consider science fiction or fantasy. Social changes beyond precedent, such as gender equality. Not least, we're conducting monetary experiments on a scale never before attempted. Success by the Bank of Japan and Fed will create a new world, one with … Continue reading The greatest monetary experiment, ever
Summary: a look at the US economy. Richard Koo's dark forecasts have proven right so far. Now we test his last and most important prediction. Most Americans knew 4 great things at the start of this recession, confidently explained by our experts. Richard Koo, economist for Nomura, said that time would prove all of these wrong. … Continue reading We are following Japan’s path of decline. The real test comes later this year.