Do we get deflation or inflation? Today we look at the darker scenario.

Summary: One example of our inability to see the world through our ideological blinders is the obsession with inflation (coming real soon, so we've been told for 3 years) while deflation bangs on the door. We must learn to see better. Fortunately the people running the economy see more clearly (despite the mockery and insults … Continue reading Do we get deflation or inflation? Today we look at the darker scenario.

Two warnings about quantitative easing, the taper, and what comes next

Summary: Quantitative easing is the easy cheap stimulus (unlike the politically difficult but effective fiscal action. Like heroin, it provides a lift with no ill effects. Slowly economists begin to realize that the cost of QE is not paid up front, but during withdrawal. Faced with the necessity and cost of tapering, last week the Fed wiffed. … Continue reading Two warnings about quantitative easing, the taper, and what comes next

What you’re not being told about the world economy, but should know!

Summary: The secret key to the FM website's great forecasting record is that we do only the blindingly obvious, and give no dates. Such as the long forecast of stability for the world economy, to be followed by ugliness. We revisit this again, showing that almost nothing is happening yet in the global economy. All … Continue reading What you’re not being told about the world economy, but should know!