Summary: Arthur C. Clarke warns about the "Hazards of Prophecy". In part 2 he warns about confident forecasts declaring an innovation to be impossible, and gives some stunning examples of scientists' failure to imagine the near future. It's an important lesson to remember as a new industrial revolution begins. "Hazards of Prophecy: The Failure of Imagination" … Continue reading Arthur C. Clarke: use your imagination to see the future
Summary: Arthur C. Clarke warns about the "Hazards of Prophecy." Don't take those predictions about 2018 & beyond too seriously. Especially the gloomy ones about technological stagnation, with so many signs that a new industrial revolution has begun. We're sailing into an unknown future. "Hazards of Prophecy: The Failure of Nerve" By Arthur C. … Continue reading Arthur C. Clarke warns us about bold confident predictions
Summary: A new paper provides valuable information about climate science -- evidence of the politicization that helped collapse the public policy debate. The authors conclude that narratives are "used to positive effect" in peer-reviewed papers. It puts science on the slippery slope to becoming propaganda (or, in today's jargon, "fake news"). Scientists achieve career success but destroy the … Continue reading Disturbing research about the use of “narratives” in climate science papers
Summary: Can America no longer grow? Have we exhausted the potential for future technological progress? Let's look at how far we have come and ask if the engines of progress that produced these wonders can no longer work for us. “Innovation of new forms of society and technology. It is the key to our progress. … Continue reading Ignore the skeptics. America can still grow.
Summary: After a decade of slow growth beneath public view, the replication crisis in science begins breaking into public view. First psychology and biomedical studies, now spreading to many other fields -- overturning what we were told is settled science, the foundations of our personal behavior and public policy. Here is an introduction to the … Continue reading The replication crisis in science has just begun. It will be big.