Summary: Small businesses are an important part of the US economy. Some indicators of their health are flashing yellow alert signals, here we look at three such. The consensus of economists remain optimistic about the economy. Just as they were in early 2008. And they’ve never predicted a recession.
- Tales of small businesses: annec-data
- Wells Fargo/Gallup survey of small businesses
- Update: Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Lending Index
- Update: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
- Other posts in this series
- For More Information
(1 ) Tales of small businesses: anecdotal data
Interview of Richard Yamarone (Senior Economist at Bloomberg, 30 years experience as a Wall Street economist), by Kate Welling published at Welling ON Wall St, 30 November 2012:
The fiscal cliff actually doesn’t seem to be all that problematic. What is problematic is just that the economy is slowing and people are not coming to stores. The small retailers are saying customers are not coming into the stores. They don’t have good traffic and they’re losing a lot of sales to the internet.
The other thing that is actually quite disturbing is that if I go give a speech to 400 or 500 people in a specific city, for instance a Chamber event, and it’s a doom and gloom speech (because I am a very big bear on the economy now) this is what has been happening: Some people will always come up and say,
“Hey, you know, I agreed with this, I disagreed with that.”
But lately they’ve been adding,
“But you’re 100% right, this economy is much weaker than anybody in the press is letting you know or leading you to believe.”